The war in Ukraine changed not only the lives of ordinary people around the world, but also the underground world of criminal activity. How the full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine reshaped the illegal business of various countries, I figured out The Economist,.
The Ukrainian port city of Odesa has been part of the "strongest criminal ecosystem in Europe" since the XNUMXth century, according to experts of the analytical center "Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime" (GI-TOC).
The criminal world of Ukraine before a full-scale invasion
Before the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, Ukraine ranked 34th among 193 countries in the world and third in Europe in the GI-TOC crime rating.
Three types of activities connect Ukraine with global criminal markets:
- Contraband routes connecting Russia and Ukraine and passing through the occupied territories.
- World smuggling hubs in Odessa and other ports on the Black Sea.
- Factories in Ukraine that manufacture prohibited export goods.
This infrastructure supported different business models to sell and transport different products.
Ukraine was a transit route for heroin from Afghanistan, complementing routes through the Balkans and the Caucasus. Cocaine from Latin America traveled through the Black Sea. Mafiosi exported weapons from Mykolaiv to Asia and Africa.
In 2020, Ukraine became the largest source of illegal tobacco supply in Europe, overtaking China. Ukrainian amphetamine production was on the rise: 67 criminal laboratories were closed - the most in history among all countries.
The new reality of the criminal world, or criminals-patriots
The war in Ukraine has changed everything, creating "an atmosphere of unacceptable risk for international criminal business," according to a US government report. International criminality faced the following obstacles in Ukraine:
- closed ports;
- mined territory;
- part of the population went to defend the country;
- the curfew makes it difficult to operate under the cover of night.
A large number of criminal organizations stopped cooperating with Russian "colleagues". "We criminals have decided to be for Ukraine," said one of them.
True, they are guided not only by patriotic feelings. "If Russia annexes us, many guys in prisons can be transferred far away [to Russian territory]," explains one of the gangsters. - Russian guards are ruthless. Therefore, we are ready to do dirty work for Ukraine."
When Ukraine fell out of the smuggling routes, criminals found other supply routes. For example, the flow of heroin and methamphetamine through the Terecchina-Iran border has increased, according to Turkish customs.
In the first quarter of 2022, Lithuanian border guards recorded a fourfold increase in the volume of illegal tobacco transportation compared to the previous year. Last year, Estonian officials together with Europol seized 3,5 tons of Latin American cocaine worth €0,5 billion in the port of Muuga.
The blockade of Ukrainian ports and increased control of the western borders have influenced the increase in cases of confiscation in Russia: the smuggling of luxury goods, especially designer handbags, has increased.
Currently, criminals in Ukraine have additional earning opportunities: human trafficking and cross-border transportation of army evaders.
According to EU estimates, due to the growing number of Ukrainian refugees, 100 people may be victims of human traffickers. Forecasts are made on the basis of statistical modeling, taking into account 000 million Ukrainians who fled the war. However, according to a Europol official, this problem is not as large-scale as the agency expected.
According to various reports, the cost of illegally crossing the Ukrainian border for men of draft age ranges from €5000 to €10. However, money does not always help: approximately 000 army evaders have already been detained.
The future of criminal operations
According to researchers, the war can greatly affect the criminal world of Russia. The Russian authorities have used organized criminals for their own purposes before, and their exploitation can only increase in the future.
Russian criminals abroad are already being asked to spy for the benefit of the Russian Federation, in particular, to help obtain microchips banned for export.
Ukraine is more difficult to predict.
Before the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, up to 9 million firearms were registered in Ukraine, probably the same number were illegal. Europe was worried that the war in Ukraine could provoke an increase in the trade in illegal arms.
However, Interpol Secretary General Jürgen Stock noted that there is no systematic or organized trade in such goods in Europe.
Drug production may increase again in Ukraine. The US government recently reported an increase in the number of small drug labs in Ukraine that sell the product online and deliver it by mail.
But the biggest opportunity for increasing the level of crime is the reconstruction of the country.
According to the World Bank, reconstruction of Ukraine will cost $411 billion, of which $92 billion is needed for the transport system, $69 billion for the housing sector. Such funds can attract the mafia, which will try to win tenders from the state with the help of bribes.
Lawmakers are making efforts to create reforms that would make it possible to eradicate organized crime and corruption in Ukraine. In particular, the draft law on urban construction reform is already under the signature of President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, because it is precisely in this industry that "abuse of power, corruption and evasion of punishment" is observed.
External control over funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine, which will mainly be filled with funds from allies, can also help.
Historically, wars have created profitable opportunities for gangsters and corrupt people. However, some unique qualities of Ukraine can help avoid such a scenario. There is every chance that Ukraine will finally cease to be a paradise for criminals.
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