In the edition The Wall Street Journal the analytical material of the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andrii Yermak, was published on the possibility of weakening Russia by reducing its oil and gas revenues.
It often seems to us that the tectonic changes that determine the fate of humanity happen suddenly. But it is not so. They are usually just a consequence of previous events. Like Putin's aggression against Ukraine. Or the collapse of the USSR.
Both the collapse of the Soviet empire and the current attempt to restore it are united by oil.
And it is oil that can put an end to the revanchist ambitions of the Russian dictator.
On January 26, 1985, the Soviet government newspaper Izvestia published a landmark report. According to the Central Statistics Office, 1984 million tons of oil were produced in 613, 3 million tons less than in 1983 and well below the target of 624 million tons.
These were huge losses, because oil accounted for 60 percent of the USSR's foreign exchange earnings, and Urals CIF Med, the main Russian grade, cost $28,55/barrel.
As a result, despite the growth of industrial production, the national income grew by only 2,6% against the target of 3,1%.
Even the reduction of subsidized exports to Eastern European allies did not help much. It was not the end yet. And not even the beginning of the end. These were just temporary difficulties, a constant of life in the Soviet Union.
But the fundamental vulnerability of the Soviet economy was exposed. Despite the fact that the official statistics of Moscow, as now, were a kind of disinformation, they could minimize, but not hide, the problem.
The problem was that the old deposits were being depleted, and the USSR needed Western technologies and Western money to increase production.
In the 1970s, Moscow took advantage of the conflict between the Arab countries and the West and consolidated its place among the world's energy exporters. As a result, with the petrodollars received from the West, the Kremlin financed the Soviet defense industry directed against the West, and used the role of supplier to weaken opposition to its ambitions.
The direct consequences of this were the invasion of Afghanistan, an attempt to suppress democratic movements in Poland. So Vladimir Putin's regime did not invent anything new, turning energy carriers into geopolitical weapons.
This strength of the USSR was its weakness. 1986 marked the beginning of the end of the communist empire.
Her spine was broken by the coordinated actions of Riyadh and Washington. The ability of King Fahd and President Reagan to get along in the face of the Soviet threat to world security is admirable.
The plan was simple. An increase in the price of a barrel of oil of only $1 each year brought the USSR a billion dollars, but a decrease of $10 resulted in a loss of $10 billion in hard currency.
And Saudi Arabia, the most influential player in OPEC, dared to go against the opinion of colleagues in the organization, rapidly increasing production. Meanwhile, the United States imposed an embargo on the export of technology to the USSR and also increased its own production.
As a result, the price of oil dropped almost three times - to 12 dollars per barrel. Colossal losses undermined the Soviet economy. The money for the promotion of global influence by force and other hybrid methods has simply run out.
And even the increase in the price of oil to 15-23 dollars in 1987-1991 could not save the Soviet monster, which continued to produce tanks and missiles instead of consumer goods.
What happened next is well known. Agreement on the elimination of medium and short-range missiles of 1987. The withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, the destruction of the Berlin Wall, the triumph of "Solidarity" in Poland and the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia in 1989. The agreement on conventional armed forces in Europe in 1990. American humanitarian aid - "Bush's chicken legs" - in Moscow.
And, finally, the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The world's largest nuclear arsenal did not save him.
But, as subsequent events have shown, Russia, intoxicated by petrodollars, inevitably begins to dream of world domination again. Economic growth and the so-called "stability" of the Putin regime became a direct consequence of high oil prices.
But if in the budget of the USSR, direct oil and gas revenues did not exceed 10-11%, then in Russia in 2011-2014 they already exceeded 50%. And this is without taking into account some revenues from energy companies.
In fact, the influence of the oil and gas industry on the economy of the aggressor country in the last decade was even greater. According to economists, by the end of the 2000s, this influence had roughly doubled compared to Soviet times.
In recent years, oil and gas accounted for about 60% of the total export of goods of the Russian Federation and 40% of the income of the federal government.
These hundreds of billions of oil and gas profits per year fueled the Kremlin's imperialism and revanchism.
This is where the roots of Moscow's official ultimatums regarding the actual capitulation of NATO and Russia's return of control over all of Eastern Europe lie.
It was the incredible export revenues that convinced the Kremlin that the world would swallow the attack on Georgia, the Syrian adventure and the invasion of Ukraine. Oil revenues continue to ensure the smooth operation of the Russian military industry and preparation for new acts of aggression.
How to resist this? Common sense and experience clearly show that sanctions against the Russian oil sector should be harsh and sudden, so that Moscow does not have time to adapt to the pressure.
However, this is not happening yet.
Sanction pressure certainly has an effect. Our international sanctions team estimates that restrictions on Russian oil, including the EU embargo and G7 price caps, have cost the aggressor $113 billion in export earnings since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Last year, the Russian budget lost almost a quarter of revenues from energy exports compared to 2022. But they still reached $102 billion.
Here I will simply remind you: a good third of the budget of the Russian Federation in one way or another is aimed at financing the war machine.
That is why Ukraine continues to insist on reducing the profitability of Russian oil trade.
Lowering the price ceiling to $30 per barrel is just one of the mechanisms.
Another mechanism is the consistent restriction of access to technologies, in particular through sanctions against intermediaries. Another is increasing market pressure.
But without the leadership of Saudi Arabia and the United States, this is impossible. As in the 1980s, increasing production will curb not only Moscow, but also Tehran. This is the key to peace not only in Europe, but also in the Middle East.
And most importantly, cheaper fuel will give a new powerful impetus to the economic development of the USA and its allies and will ensure further global leadership.
That is, it is not about unearned profits. It's about investing in safety and progress. Isn't it worth it?
Militant dictators always perceive compromise and goodwill as weakness. Russia is no exception.
The Kremlin is not capable of equal dialogue - it imitates it. To count on his rationality is to deceive oneself.
In 2014-2022, Ukraine held about 200 rounds of negotiations with Russia, seeking a peaceful solution to the conflict. We agreed on a cease-fire a dozen times - and each time Russia broke it, as soon as it was ready to continue the aggression.
And as long as Moscow refuses to recognize the international subjectivity and sovereignty of Ukraine, any attempts at peacemaking will be doomed.
Racism is the Russian version of Nazism. Genocidal practices, concentration camps, torture, the destruction of cultural artifacts, the ideology of a historical mission and the supremacy of a single nation - this style is easy to recognize.
Hitler's capture of world elites led to an imitation of a compromise at the cost of destroying two Central European democracies, culminating in the greatest carnage in history. The admiration of representatives of the world's elites for Putin is leading the world down the same path.
Putin's Russia cosplays the Third Reich - and prepares for new wars. This is evidenced by documents, in particular, a letter from Duma Speaker Volodin to Putin recently made public Ukrainian cyber resistance.
Negotiations with the Kremlin are a zero-sum game. It's about surrender.
The question is whether you want to accept it or announce it. There is simply no third option.
Despite all the disagreements between the members of NATO and the EU, despite all the contradictions between the US and its partners in the Middle East and Europe, one question will surely unite everyone: do you want the restoration of the USSR and its sphere of influence, an endless series of crises and local wars? Hardly. Especially since this time everything will be much worse.
The "Soviets" supported leftist movements everywhere. Putin is making a name for himself as a conservative leader. But this is far from the case. It is not bound by any ideological guidelines other than the desire for power and supports any fringes anywhere to promote chaos.
Treachery and unpredictability are the basis of his strategy. There is simply no other way for Moscow to compensate for the loss of the USSR's resources.
Russia scares humanity with nuclear weapons. But it itself is extremely vulnerable to its own oil. To save the world, it is enough to simply turn off the faucet. As King Fahd and President Reagan did.
By the way, Soviet weapons-grade uranium later became fuel for American nuclear power plants.
ANDRIY YERMAK, HEAD OF THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE
