Ukraine's ability to regain all of its territory in the long term depends on numerous future decisions in the West, the Kremlin, and Kyiv, and any discussion that treats the prospects of Ukrainian victory or defeat as predetermined outcomes ignores how all parties involved could dynamically to change the course of the war in Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War writes HEI.
Western media continue to report that some US officials have resumed discussing the idea of a "border freeze", as the latest package of US military aid to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to return all of its territory.
Military analysts noted that proponents of the current package have not argued that it alone would allow Ukraine to liberate all of the occupied territory, and that discussion of possible end states of the war is premature since President Joe Biden signed the new aid bill into law just two days ago.
US military aid is currently on its way to Ukraine and will take several weeks to reach front-line units and have a tangible impact on the battlefield.
Ukrainian forces will first have to use US assistance to stabilize the front line and stop the Russian advance, particularly in the direction of Avdiivka and Chasovoy Yar, in the coming weeks.
The scale and intensity of Russia's projected summer 2024 offensive operation, likely to begin in June, also remains unclear, and Russia's military command may be actively evaluating and revising plans for its summer offensive effort to account for clashes with better-equipped Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian forces will need to defend against a Russian summer offensive effort and prevent Russian forces from making significant operational progress during the summer months before they can challenge the initiative and conduct a counteroffensive operation later in 2024 or 2025.
The Ukrainian forces must also address current issues with training new personnel, equipping new units, and rehabilitating old units. The precise timing of these efforts, which will likely play a significant role in determining the timing of Ukraine's future counteroffensive operations, remains unclear.
According to ISW, sufficient and consistent Western assistance will be critical to Ukraine's future counteroffensive efforts, although the US and the West will likely have to respond as Ukrainian military command determines the scope and focus of such operations and communicates Ukraine's needs to Western partners weeks and months in advance. to future counteroffensive operations.
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