Product prices continue to rise both in the world and in Ukraine. Since the beginning of the year, the so-called "borscht set", sunflower oil, chicken eggs. Corrections are being made: the late spring - it pushes back the terms of growing early crops, and the lockdown - because of it, the import supply chain turned out to be broken.
Why prices are rising
Experts named three main reasons for price growth in Ukraine. The first is the ongoing world travel of products, the second is a seasonal factor - we are talking about early vegetables, roots and berries. The third is a decrease in the supply of a number of goods, primarily meat and sea fish.
According to the FAO - food and agricultural organization of the United Nations, the prices of products in the world are rising for the tenth month in a row.
"Two factors contribute to the increase in food prices: Latin American countries have reduced the supply of agricultural raw materials on the world market, and China, on the contrary, is increasing demand. By the end of the year, the prices of agricultural products will increase by another 14%," says the president of the Ukrainian Analytical Center, Oleksandr Okhrymenko.
And since Ukraine is a major exporter of food on the world market, it is obvious that domestic prices will tend to world prices.
That has already traveled
The seasonal factor of price growth in Ukraine was exacerbated by the late spring. Prices for the first fruits of the new harvest are still high. For example, a kilo of fresh radish still costs 45-50 hryvnias, an hour ago it was cheaper by 25-30%.
According to the director of the Association of Distributors of Trade Networks, Alexey Doroshenko, the terms of delivery of early fruits and berries have moved forward by two or three weeks.
"A year ago, early strawberries from Transcarpathia were sold on April 10, this year - two weeks later, and the prices are sky-high - up to UAH 200/kg," the expert noted. "The same applies to early vegetables and borscht set."
A member of the Economic Discussion Club, Oleg Pendzyn, expects a 70-80% increase in prices for the new crop of borscht in May. You will have to pay about UAH 30/kg for a kilo of young carrots, beets, and cabbage.
Experts do not yet give forecasts of how prices for cereals, sugar, and bread will change this year. As Alexey Doroshenko explained, it will be possible to make some estimates no earlier than in 3 months, when at least approximate prospects for the new crop will become clear.
Breastless chickens and veal are not for everyone
But Ukrainians have already noticed a significant increase in prices for chicken carcasses and fillets, beef. According to State Statistics, in April 2020 a chicken carcass cost UAH 52/kg, now it costs UAH 63/kg (+21%), if an hour ago chicken fillet was sold for UAH 92/kg, now it is UAH 103/kg (+12%) ). Beef (veal) rose in price from UAH 138 to UAH 157/kg (+14%), but the pulp traveled much more. If back in January of this year, the upper part of a boneless veal thigh could be bought for UAH 130-140/kg, now it is UAH 170-180/kg (+30%).
The experts are united: the rise in prices for the meat assortment will be noticeable in the near future, but it will affect individual items.
According to the director of the Association "Union of Poultry Breeders of Ukraine", Oleksandr Bakumenko, for the first time in the last 20 years, chicken production has fallen in Ukraine. The decrease in meat amounted to 6%, with a 20% decrease in livestock. At the same time, feed for chickens traveled by 35%. In an hour, chicken legs traveled by 70%, and fillets - by 12-15%. Therefore, the chicken delicacy will increase in price and further.
Alexey Doroshenko agrees with Bakumenko: "In Europe, chicken fillet costs twice as much as in Ukraine. Therefore, it is much more profitable for our suppliers to cut carcasses and export chilled breasts to neighboring countries. And in Ukraine, the price for them can jump up to UAH 130/kg and more."
The situation with beef is even worse. Oleg Pendzyn gave shocking figures: in 1991, the number of cattle in Ukraine was 37 million, now it is 1,8 million, 20 times less.
"Our meat consumption is far behind the norms recommended by nutritionists: the average Ukrainian eats only 53,5 kg per hour against the norm of 92 kg, and the average European - 94 kg," analyzes Oleg Pendzin. – The assortment is also significantly different: the menu for a European is 55% beef, 30% chicken and 15% pork, for a Ukrainian the menu is 55% chicken, 30% pork and 15% beef. It's all about the price, we choose meat according to our wallet."
Therefore, Oleg Pendzyn is confident that beef will continue to rise in price, and it is possible that first-class veal will soon cost UAH 200/kg.
The good news is that pork prices are unlikely to rise by the summer. And lard will even become cheaper by 30-40% or up to UAH 60-80/kg. Alexander Okhrymenko reminded: this happens every year, because in the heat the demand for lard drops sharply
"Golden" fish
Another product that is becoming less and less available is sea fish. According to State Statistics, fish traveled less than meat, on average from 78 to 83 UAH/kg (6,4%), however, social varieties of so-called "wild" (not artificially grown) sea fish increased in price much more. For example, herring is not 45-50 UAH/kg, but 65-70 UAH/kg (+40%), "fish of pensioners" - capelin - not 60-65, but 90-100 UAH/kg (+50%). Tyulka and salak are slightly cheaper - UAH 50-70/kg, but the price has also increased by almost a third. The sellers explain: the purchase was expensive, and it is difficult to sell such fish at a high markup. Therefore, trade almost does not take it, it is not profitable.
Norwegian sea trout is also not found everywhere, and the price is skyrocketing - up to UAH 400/kg. An alternative is Ukrainian pond trout from Prykarpattia, which is more than twice as cheap.
The specialized department of the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture explained to us that the population of capelin and other types of fish, for example, Icelandic herring, has greatly decreased in recent years, so the ministries of agriculture of the countries where the fish lives (Iceland and Norway) introduced temporary restrictions on its catch.
As for "wild" trout, the supply chain has been disrupted due to the coronavirus. In addition, the demand for delicate fish fell due to the closure of cafes and restaurants due to the quarantine and the decrease in the income of Ukrainians. This led to a local deficit and rising prices.
"It is enough for one large importer to stop supplying red fish, and the deficit will be created instantly. But this is not buckwheat, so there is no informational noise," Alexander Okhrymenko summed up.
So the conclusion is disappointing: such a sea fish, both social and for gourmets, will continue to rise in price until the price "rests" against the purchasing power of the population. It is estimated that for herring it is UAH 90/kg, for capelin – UAH 120/kg.
But in general, experts promise a more than two-fold slowdown in inflation in the second quarter. That is, for April-June, prices will rise by less than 2%.
Based on materials "Today"
