The year 2021, although full of hopes for everyone, has already brought financial troubles - not only will utilities increase, bread prices will soar, but also bad habits - in particular, smoking - will cost three times as much. However, the initiative is not related to concern for the nation's health, but to economic factors.
A planned increase in excise taxes is planned for next year. If in 2020, the price of cigarettes in Ukraine increased by an average of 10 hryvnias, then in 2021, a pack of premium class will go up by another 12 hryvnias. And already in 2024 it can cost more than 100 hryvnias. At the same time, proposals are being made in the Verkhovna Rada to raise prices immediately to 200 hryvnias - they say, the tobacco sector needs to be tackled closely.
WHY CIGARETTES?
As it turned out, Ukrainians satisfy only their basic needs for the last penny: dependence and hunger. Gosstat published data according to which half of Ukrainian sales accounted for cigarettes, food and drinks in six months of 2020. It is unclear whether quarantine or depression is to blame, however, in desperation, people calm themselves with tobacco smoke in every possible way.
Another possible reason for the tobacco boom is resale. The scenario when cigarettes are bought in blocks in stores, and then resold in stalls or individually by grandmothers on the street is not a new one. The same as the purchase of tobacco products by Ukrainian so-called "salaried workers" who take them to Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic and other European countries. After all, it is a long-known fact: cigarettes in Ukraine are much cheaper than in Europe, and for the same money you can buy a pack or two of cigarettes there, you can buy a block here. Therefore, such illegal tobacco is in demand in Europe, especially in universities and their dormitories. The main thing is to know your so-called audience.
At the same time, experts argue that it is not really a matter of increasing physical sales volumes, but of the population itself and its psychology.
"For every request there is an offer. If it were unprofitable, no one would buy it. And so - look: five years ago, cigarettes were 27-30 hryvnias, realities are changing, the exchange rate is rising, now the price is 40-60, times are bad - but all the same, Ukrainians will not eat, they will not drink, but they will make a couple of cherished "pulls". Everything comes from the head, first of all, and this is already successfully used by marketers," says Larisa Rychanskaya, an economist.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE PRICES
According to statistics, domestic filter cigarettes cost an average of 41,5 hryvnias, medium class – 48,9 hryvnias, and premium – 54,7 hryvnias per pack. At these rates, taking into account the increase in excise taxes, cheap Ukrainian cigarettes will cost 2021 hryvnias by December 7,9, middle-quality cigarettes will cost 8,9 hryvnias, and premium cigarettes will cost 12 hryvnias, analysts say.
"Until 2013, there was no smuggling to Ukraine - there was smuggling of tobacco products to Europe, that is, we weakened their economy there. As a result, different governments have not come up with anything other than a constant increase in excise duty, both on alcohol and tobacco products. Previously, not only the security forces, but also Ukrainian national manufacturers struggled with this problem: there was both security and a competitive environment. Expertises, investigations were paid for, there was a "cleaning" of the market. And now the risks are different, and the shadow market is more profitable. There are no analysts in power now, only "amateurs" - as a result, the system is collapsing," said economist Yury Atamanyuk.
In addition, the alternative type of smoking is no less harmful, therefore, excise taxes on it should be the same as on ordinary cigarettes, the parliamentary committee on the health of the nation said. Because of this, electronic cigarettes and so-called tobacco products for electric heating should travel significantly. Namely, they are considered a springboard to full-fledged smoking among young people, say people's deputies from the specialized committee.
That is, the prices of the devices themselves will rise by at least one and a half times, and smoking mixtures, liquids and flavorings will now cost two or three times more. In addition, this time the amount of the tax for ordinary cigarettes and electronic cigarettes will be comparable: as a result, revenues to the state budget will increase significantly, and expensive tobacco products should, in theory, encourage Ukrainians to quit smoking.
