About the last meeting in Ramstein, the supply of weapons, anti-aircraft defense and aircraft to Ukraine, peace negotiations and counteroffensive - in an interview RBC-Ukraine said Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.
While Ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive, Western media and experts have been discussing for months in a row where exactly the strike will be struck, how successful it will be and how it will affect the prospects of the transition to diplomacy. Within Ukraine, expectations for a counteroffensive are also high - including due to numerous forecasts that the war will end in the near future, certainly with a complete victory for Ukraine.
Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov admits that expectations of a counteroffensive are overheated, but it is hardly possible to influence them - unless calls are made to set the bar too high. RBC-Ukraine spoke with Reznikov on the grounds of the last, jubilee meeting of the "Ramstein group" of aid to Ukraine, where the emphasis was on air defense and logistical support of the Ukrainian army. The topic of Western aircraft has not yet moved into the practical plane, but the Minister of Defense is confident: this issue will also be resolved.
- Your deputy, Hanna Malyar, urged everyone not to ask too much about the counteroffensive - plans, directions, time, etc. But will we, the civilian population, at least understand that the counteroffensive has already begun? Will it happen completely unexpectedly?
- I really hope that it will happen unexpectedly for you too. Because this is the meaning of a military operation - no one should know that it has started. The longer the enemy does not know, the more likely it will be successful.
- From the news reports, we will understand that this is already the same long-awaited counteroffensive?
- Of course. Now, thanks to various resources, such as Deep State, which are engaged in OSINT, there is nothing to hide anymore. Plus, our guys are socially and media active. Flying to the next liberated village, they immediately take selfies, short streams. And everyone understands everything.
Once we were traveling on a train to Ramstein with two generals, Vadym Skibitsky and Yevgeny Moysyuk (Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, — ed.), we knew that there would be a Kharkiv operation, but even we sat in the compartment and asked each other: What do you have there?". Skibytsky says: "According to my information, this is it." Our drones tell me: "Minister, here is a video from Izyum, here is Balaklia" and so on. And of course, when Zhenya Moysiuk said that the paratroopers had already reached the Oskol River, we looked at the map: "Whoah!".
Then we ask if there is a photo. Send - "Bushmaster". I say, "I urgently need a video thanking the Australian people." And the boys filmed a thank you to the Australians in English, I am immediately uploading it through Vasyl Miroshnichenko - our ambassador to Australia, as a thank you to the minister, the prime minister, the people. We are talking - we need more "Bushmasters".
- Do you agree that society's expectations of a counteroffensive are somewhat overheated?
- I agree.
- Who warms them more: Ukrainian society, politicians or the West?
- Both those and those. It's definitely overheated, everyone wants another win. Earlier they did not believe in victory. Earlier, they wanted Ukraine to survive at least minimally, to preserve at least some part of Ukraine. And when the ZSU showed success, everyone began to believe in victory - after Zmeiny, after Kyiv Oblast, Chernihiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast, after Kharkiv Oblast, Kherson. They want the next victory. It's normal, these are emotions - waiting for success.
- You don't see any particular harm from this?
- Look, I can't change it. My mother, a psychiatrist and psychotherapist, always told me: "If you can't change your circumstances, try to change your attitude towards them." Therefore, we agree with the General Staff, and Hanna Malyar then says: "Guys, don't set your expectations too high, so that there is no disappointment later. Then get upset. Not everything is so simple, this is war. And not only that, we won't tell you exactly when, how and where."
- Let's move on to Ramstein. Even before the meeting, it was known that the emphasis would be on air defense. It is remembered that other things used to stand prominently, for example, tanks and artillery. We have already closed the issue of tanks, and now on the agenda we have air defense - do we really have such problems with air defense now, as written in some documents leaked to the network?
- Air defense remained, remains and will be priority #1, because it is security throughout the country - in Lviv, Vinnytsia, Ternopil, Odesa, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr. Because it can fly anywhere.
The ability to develop the country, for children to go to school, for students to go to universities, for doctors to treat people, for farmers to harvest grain - this is all the security of heaven. This is the survival of the country, the ability to produce products, pay taxes, replenish the budget from which the army is supported, which is very expensive. I am the most expensive minister today, in terms of spending money on the maintenance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, I am the biggest employer - everyone needs to be fed, clothed, shod, and now also treated. The country must survive, for this air defense is #1.
We have a Soviet system, to which the stockpile of missiles is depleted. If they are not produced in our country, and are only available in countries where we cannot take them, then we need to replenish them with something else. What? Western air defense systems. In principle, it has already been decided what these systems are, and now it is necessary to increase their number and the number of missiles for them. Plus, let's not forget that the aircraft platform is also part of the air defense system. That is, a modern 4++ generation aircraft as a full-fledged closed air defense system. Because it will then close the "gaps", the failures of the Soviet-style systems we have.
- How much time passes on average from the decision to supply weapons to its actual supply? Are solutions worked out before "Ramstein", and are they already fixed at "Ramstein"?
- Second, "Rammstein" is already the publicizing of the decisions made and voicing trends, some new narratives for the next period. And if some country publicly comes out and says: "We have decided to give such and such" - it has already been decided before. Plus - coordination of interaction between countries.
Right now, our key task with our partners is to provide us with spare parts, maintenance, repair and ammunition for the systems we received: from the sniper rifle to the Hymars and the tank. As for the planes, I am sure we will finish this issue.
- In this year?
- This is the factor I was talking about - practicality. Airplanes are the most expensive. Accordingly, providing aircraft, then maintaining them, plus missiles and bombs for them is very expensive. Therefore, when making a decision, it is necessary to understand whether everyone is ready to subscribe to it. Here, under the tanks, we signed up and we can see: someone gives four, someone gives six... Not two hundred, not three hundred.
The key player here is still the USA, and they are very pragmatic, they count money. And that's normal, that's viable. Because we have partners who gave us something, and then they say: we can't serve you further, we don't have the resources, if you want - buy. It seems to be fair too... And the same with airplanes. When it will be calculated who is ready to give how much and support at the appropriate level - then the decision will be made.
- How would you rate the results of the last "Ramstein", to what extent did your expectations come true?
- I never have high expectations. All meetings at "Ramstein" are work-related, premeditated, they are prepared for months. Only in April, even before Ramstein, I visited four countries, and two defense ministers were in Ukraine. And only in the time after the full-scale invasion - not counting video conferences, phone conversations, my visits abroad - there were already forty visits to Ukraine at the level of defense ministers.
I have received confirmation of our previous agreements, which have already turned into commitments after their approval in accordance with the internal procedures of each country. When the country says "we are ready to transfer this and that" to Ukraine in Ramstein, then all the necessary approvals have already been received.
I am satisfied with the meeting, I received the assurance of "unwavering support for us, as long as it takes, to win this war", this is literally from the mouth of the defense ministers. The second is a clear vision that this requires systemic support not only with types of weapons or ammunition, but also with repairs, spare parts, maintenance of equipment, etc. It is also about the training of our soldiers in training missions. I officially appealed to include the entire security and defense sector in the training programs, including National Guard, border service, SBU. The mandates of many countries or organizations did not allow them to train national guardsmen or border guards, because they pass as police, law enforcement forces. I had to give verbal and written explanations that these are our defense forces, they take a direct part in hostilities, including in Bakhmut and other hot spots, fight heroically, suffer losses. And I received feedback: there were no objections, their training programs will be prepared.
The top three of my request are: Anti-aircraft fire, shells for all systems, armor fist or fist upgrades, tanks and armored vehicles of various classes. These are three priorities that do not exclude everything else.
- There was a lot of talk about the supply of shells to Ukraine at Ramstein. And what about the shells of the enemies? Quite contradictory information is coming.
- We have information that they are running around the market and asking for shells, they are counting in advance. They have crazy resources, of course, and I wouldn't give good news that they're out of ammunition and we're going to win tomorrow. No, unfortunately, there are a lot of them. They shoot without thinking. Fire shaft is used. Therefore, they try to find shells somewhere, use old ones from warehouses.
- Are they running around the world?
- Yes, both North Korea and Iran. They are now partners.
- And alone?
- They already understand that they cannot pull.
- French President Macron's initiative to talk with China about some kind of peace plan - what is it? Won't it anger our allies? And where did it come from at all - France offers China a peace plan regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war?
- Every leader of the country sees himself recorded in history - that he eventually achieved peace. This is no longer peace in one country, it is peace in the world. Everyone wants to show their leadership. If China said, "We are a player," then there is a player who is ready to represent us, saying, "Well, let's talk."
- That is, it will not bring imbalance to the ranks of our allies?
- I do not think. Firstly, everyone values their subjectivity, secondly, everyone thinks: "Well, let them talk, search." When the time comes for real talks about peace, Ukraine will still dictate. He will say: "We want Americans, British, French, Germans, Turks, and Poles to sit at our table. We want it to be a coalition of countries that are ready to commit to providing us with security tomorrow." We just don't need a facilitator. We can manage without a facilitator. We have excellent negotiators in the team, and not just one. The president himself. We each have our own skills - the head of the Office has skills, Dmytro Kuleba, I have experience. And so on. We will deal with it.
Here is the question of the political will of the states to undertake some obligations.
- So far, the plans they announce are more maneuvers, they have no relation to reality?
- Everyone voices something. And we have a plan announced by the president - 10 points. We say: this is our position, go ahead.
- That is, the fact that the Chinese and Brazilians offer something is all the background?
- So. In fact, when you see so many allies offering, it means that Russia is dreaming of negotiations. She does not know how to save face and how to end the so-called "special military operation" and is looking for options.
- Under the influence of what events, the Kremlin can actually make a request for peace in some version that we will at least be ready to discuss?
- I do not know. I can name a bunch of conjectures, but I have to try to think for the Kremlin, and there is such a sick way of thinking...
- If we try to compare war with running 100 meters, where are we now? Are we taking a second breath for a rush or are we exhaling or are we staying right on schedule?
- There is an interesting moment. According to psychologists, 21 days is the maximum time when the body can keep stress on short reserves. After 21 days, a sharp decline begins, psychologists convinced me that there will be excessive aggression internally, in social networks, against each other, more "betrayal" will appear and so on. This happens at the individual level and passes into the collective. The same thing happens after a few months and after a year too.
In principle, if you analyze it, it turns out that way. 21 days was also a serious psycho-emotional test for me. On day 21 of the full-scale war, I realized I was running out. There is a lack of resources for recovery, because I sleep for two or three hours. You sleep, you don't sleep, but you just switch, jump up, see what's on the phone, whether the president, the prime minister called, head, did not call. And when I realized that, I decided that I had to do something with myself. Because I can't stand it and I'm going to blow up. That is, if you end up psycho-emotionally, then you end up physically, psychosomatics works.
I had to conduct a psychotherapy session with myself. It probably took a day or two. I drive in the car and think, then I get distracted, then again. That is, I conducted such a study with myself. As a result, I revealed my main difficulty.
Every time I woke up, I realized that I was waiting for "it to be over." I had an inner expectation that it would be over in two or three days. Some kind of deep expectation, they say, now the West will wake up, now it will say that it has no more patience, now it will say: "Putin, stop," and will introduce sanctions.
When I said to myself "when will this end", I began to understand - what is "this"? And I honestly admitted that I was used to living in a state of hybrid war from 2014 to 2022, with the war in the east, with the operation of the combined forces. And this is so incomparable to what is now all over the country, that the state in which most of the country lived, it was not what suited us, but we got used to it. It has become commonplace for many... And relatively speaking, if you say to many people on March 10: "Guys, we are returning to the period of OOS", I am sure that many people would accept it. It's not scary to go to school, kindergarten, and even swim on the beach in Odessa.
I understood that my psychological component would be ready to accept it. And so I honestly said and understood that it was impossible and that my expectation was unjustified, and it would not all end tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, and this unjustified expectation was exhausting me. Every time after 2-3 hours of night sleep, it's not even a dream, I woke up with this expectation. It was terribly exhausting, and unjustified expectations lead to aggression and disappointment.
So here it is. This is not a sprint distance. This is not a 100-meter, not a 60-meter, or a 30-meter. When I realized that this is not a sprint, but a marathon, then I said to myself - wait, in order to run the last 195 meters of the marathon distance, you have to hold on for 42 kilometers before that. This means that for 42 kilometers you have to accumulate energy, resources, keep the pace, spend it wisely, and then, when 195 meters remain, pull away. To be the first to touch this tape or at least be in the prizes.
We are running a marathon. I can't say how many kilometers we are from the finish line, this is a very conditional comparison. So far, we have successfully completed this entire stage. All these our victorious actions in the form of counterattacks, the liberation of our territories, the ability to resist the occupiers and even the strengthening of our air defense. And even the ability to shoot down Iranian drones, and not to fall into a blackout, and not to fall into bankruptcy, and even the ability to make money from it, and pay taxes, and even export grain and oil.
We have a unique government. All people are unique. We were lucky, no matter how strange it sounds, to pass the test of the coronavirus. The government of Denys Shmyhal was formed on March 4, 2020, and in a week a global pandemic will arrive, for which no one, not a single civilized country, is ready. Countries were tearing each other apart, taking cargoes with masks, oxygen devices, intercepting them, choosing the future vaccine. And the government of Denys Shmyhal persisted, the president held conference calls every day, helped, managed as the head of state. For the preservation of democracy, we emerged as a state capable of accepting challenges. And society understood the fact that you can't go outside, that there are lockdowns, that you can't go to restaurants, that children study online. And the government learned to hold meetings online, I participated in meetings even with a fever and pneumonia.
This hardened us when the open phase, a full-scale war, began in February 2022, before that it was a hybrid. We became ironmen, we were able to run, swim, and pedal. Learned endurance and interaction in the government. We have a very efficient government, there are no quarrels, no swearing. We are running this marathon, and I believe we are running successfully. And the whole country. I would like to say that we are so many kilometers closer to the finish line, but I cannot say that.
- That is, where is this finish line, it is still unclear?
- If we take this comparison, we are running over rough terrain. And the most interesting thing is that we do not know what lies ahead.
- Of course, we were not introduced to the track.
- We don't know the soil, we don't know the difference in terrain, we don't know what the weather will be like. In classic rallies, racers go through their route in advance, the navigator knows what awaits him tomorrow. But rally raids, when you sit down and drive, like the Paris-Dakar series, you are given only a roadbook with links to the area so that you don't get lost. But you don't know what awaits you ahead.
We are running this race with you - the whole country on rough terrain. But what is the nuance? As in a civilized marathon, spectators applaud you to the left and right, they give you water, sandwiches, vitamins. And the steeper you run, the more they help you.
In this marathon, as in computer games, you will still get in the way. And, unfortunately, there are those who do not help even within the country. "You're not running correctly, you're not running well, you're not putting your foot in the right way, you took the wrong sneakers, you bought the wrong ones, ah-ah, now you bought expensive sneakers and you're tripping!"
- How probable is the restoration of our borders of 1991 not only by military, but also by diplomatic means?
- For us, as a country, for the state, we have an unambiguously clear goal and task - to go out and prove to the whole world that changing territories by force is impossible in the modern world. Once we agreed in 1991, including Russia, that these are our internationally recognized borders - all of them, they are inviolable. And all those who violated them must experience collapse, defeat, and most importantly - suffer punishment.
We must do this so that our future generation - grandchildren, great-grandchildren - live in a peaceful, protected country. Why am I sure of this? Because very aggressive Germany in the First World War, the Second World War then became a pacifist country. And not just because of the defeat, but because simply the defeat in the First World War and the Treaty of Versailles, on the contrary, led to revanchist attitudes. Hitler had just returned from the front, a disillusioned soldier, and began to tell crowds of people why they should go to war.
Therefore, there will be a desire for revenge after the defeat of the Russians in this war. Therefore, we need an international tribunal, a conditional "Nuremberg-2", wherever it takes place. Someone believes that The Hague is, yes, it is symbolic, although I would do it in Mariupol or Kharkiv. At least a tribunal meeting.
In order to make Russia not an aggressor country, but a developing country.
- Do you think it is possible?
- Yes, of course, it is possible. An example of modern Germany after the Second World War.
- Well, they are different from Germany, different countries, different peoples...
- But all countries are different and peoples are different. I will name you five more empires that colonized, destroyed, killed, and now everything is fine. What, France is not a colonizing country? And Holland? And Britain? And Spain, Portugal? Okay, and Mongolia? And the Persians? And even the Greeks. And the Ottoman Empire? But take any. That's how the world lived then. And today these are mostly civilized countries. They try to solve all issues with respect for the visa, because they understand everything perfectly. So, I think it is possible in the case of Russia. But they need to create conditions for this.
We have to cross the border of 1991. Next is the question of technology. The Kremlin itself will not go anywhere. But the regime may change. They had a moment of enlightenment in the country several times. In the Soviet Union there was a thaw, restructuring, under Yeltsin the country developed, democratic institutions were built, they really fought for freedom and democracy. Then they buried her themselves. But they have this core inside, they are capable and can do it.
The issue is propaganda and information influence. As they influence in one direction, they can influence in the other as well.
And the diplomatic way is possible when the aggressor's resources are weakening, but he still wants to bargain for something. He will want to bargain for the removal of some sanctions, the opportunity to sell something, to trade in order to live for something. Its specific owners of the treasury will want to use it, they will want to stop being outcasts so that their children can study somewhere. They will search, trade. And bargaining is already diplomacy. Only in it the main unit is numbers.
- But not under the current leadership of the Russian Federation?
- Definitely not. I think already with those who will change their regime. They may remain ideologically the same, but their surnames will be different and it will be easier for them to nod to their predecessors, saying that they ruined everything.
They spoiled everything they could. Let's take any line of tsars of the Russian Empire who built Russia, the "great empire" - I think they would have strangled the current regime themselves. Because they wanted to push NATO as far as possible, but they got 1200 km of border with Finland. We have also become a de facto NATO country today.
They shouted "Patriot in Poland is the crossing of red lines, we will not forgive you", threatened everyone. Yes, Patriot is in Ukraine today. HIMARS, artillery, technology. Our soldiers are trained in NATO camps. As they say - "NATO military"? So it is already in Ukraine, but not in the form of a NATO soldier, but in the form of a Ukrainian soldier, armed and trained according to NATO standards.
Our level of interoperability is very serious. I can tell you with absolute confidence that after our victory, our instructors will be the main instructors of NATO.
Our guys know, know how to use their weapons, with new updated tactics, know how to counter who? That's right - the main threat to NATO, according to the strategy approved in Madrid for 10 years ahead. That is, Russia. Who beats Russia? Ukrainians. Therefore, the renewed Kremlin regime will be interested in the West making concessions, because they have nowhere else to go. Or they will be pressed by "friendly" China. And that's all.
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