On Saturday and Sunday, November 14 and 15, a holiday quarantine was held in Ukraine. According to the idea of the government, the initiative will make it possible to have a positive effect on the epidemiological situation in the country, reducing the number of people infected with the coronavirus.
ElitExpert found out whether the first lockdown of the weekend led to this effect.
Artificial understatement or coincidence?
Statistics show that after the first weekend quarantine, the epidemiological situation has really improved. So, on Saturday morning, another anti-record was set — 12 per day. Then the number of patients began to decline: on Sunday, 524 were recorded, and on Monday - 10.
Nevertheless, it cannot be said that Ukraine received such figures thanks to the quarantine. Last week, more than 40 PCR tests were conducted per day. On Friday, November 000, a total of 13 tests were conducted, which led to a new anti-record. And starting from Saturday, the number of PCR tests was reduced to 48, and on Sunday - to 054. Simple mathematics - the fewer tests, the fewer patients, and vice versa. And this, in turn, does not reflect the real picture of the pandemic.
The government is still cautious
However, the government is still not trumpeting the victory and not paying attention to the fact that, purely statistically, the quarantine "worked". For example, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said today, that any anti-epidemic measures do not give an instant result and the effect of the weekend quarantine can be seen after 2-3 weeks. The Ministry of Health holds approximately the same opinion.
However, it is quite possible that these figures will be presented at the end of November - the beginning of December, as proof that the weekend quarantine really works. Either the Cabinet of Ministers realizes that the latest figures are the result obtained thanks to a smaller number of tests, and they are waiting for a real effect with adequate testing. Recall that earlier ElitExpert explained, why the weekend quarantine does more harm than good.
