The third world war has already begun, and Russian aggression in Ukraine is part of it. However, currently only the aggressors take these events seriously, he writes The Telegraph.
"Whether we like it or not, Russia's broad war in Ukraine is part of a world war. A world war pitting a quartet of authoritarian states against the democracies of the world. It is Russia and Russia's allies - China, Iran and North Korea - against Ukraine and its allies. This is most Western democracies and, from time to time, the United States,” – the publication says.
The author notes that currently only the mentioned four autocracies behave as if the war is truly global.
"Until this changes, Ukraine will be at a disadvantage. If and when things change, Russia could suffer a swift and lasting defeat that could teach other autocrats lessons.
For the population of rich and free countries, it may be comforting to think of the war in Ukraine as a regional war, but it is not so," — writes the author of the material, David Ax.
The Telegraph highlights that from the early days of the war in early 2022, when the West quickly came together to provide Ukraine with the intelligence, weapons and money it needed to protect and support it. Later, Russia mobilized its own allies. The first is Iran, which in the fall of 2022 supplied Russia with Russia's first effective drone design, the Shahed explosive.
The second ally of the Russian Federation is North Korea. It became active at the end of last year to solve one of Russia's most serious problems: the lack of artillery shells. Russian batteries fired tens of thousands of shells a day in the first weeks of the war. By mid-2023, Ukrainian forces actually had a firepower advantage over Russian forces – and for one simple reason. Then, in January 2024, that changed. Moscow concluded an agreement with Pyongyang to exchange Russian food for millions of North Korean shells.
Meanwhile, China has set about reviving Russia's arms industry, which has been hit by foreign sanctions that have stripped it of microelectronics and precision instruments. The authors of the article emphasize that the type of microelectronics that is needed for the production of drones and missiles, and the type of tools that are needed for the production of new barrels for howitzers.
"If during the Second World War the United States was the arsenal of the United Kingdom's democracy, today Iran, North Korea and China are the arsenal of the Russian autocracy." said in the material.
According to David Ax, Russia cannot win in Ukraine without allies from around the world – just as Ukraine cannot win without its own allies on several continents. Yes, actual fighting is taking place in Ukraine and Russia, with Iran also engaged against Israel both through proxies and directly, but "the broader conflict is global and the stakes are also global."
The world's most powerful autocracies already perceive the war in Ukraine as a world war. They support Russia to assert the power of countries like Russia to attack, conquer and oppress when and where they are.
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