The President of the Republic of Belarus (RB) Oleksandr Lukashenko assures that Minsk is not preparing to go to war with Ukraine, while Belarus has once again extended military exercises - now until October 29. What is the position of Belarus at this stage of the Russian-Ukrainian war? Is there a risk of a repeated invasion by the Republic of Belarus into Ukraine? Experts answer.
"If, in theory, an invasion could ever happen, it will happen without the participation of the Belarusian military," says a member of the Council on Freedom of Speech under President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, ex-deputy minister of information policy (from 2015 to 2016). Tatiana Popova, — There is a message from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine that Russian mobilized soldiers are being transferred to Belarus, which increases the threat level of a possible re-invasion. But I think that even if it could theoretically happen someday, it will happen without the participation of the Belarusian military."
Meanwhile, Tetyana Popova notes, Belarus provides its training grounds for Russians, because there are not enough such training grounds in the Russian Federation for the mobilization campaign launched by the Kremlin. Plus, the aggressor country has the opportunity to attack Ukraine from the side of Belarus with missiles and drones.
Ex-speaker of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Vlad Voloshyn reminds that during the entire history of Lukashenka's stay in power in Belarus, he always professed politics - both ours and yours. With a certain tilt towards the Russian Federation.
"Therefore, the participation of Belarus in the war with Ukraine is not obvious. Without the direct involvement of the armed forces and internal troops of the Republic of Belarus in combat clashes with the Armed Forces. However, the Russians are constantly using Belarusian airfields, bases, territories and weapons for attacks on our country. All this indicates that Belarus is participating in the war against Ukraine," the expert believes.
According to him, although there is a risk that Putin will force Lukashenka to throw the Belarusian armed forces against us, the probability of this is currently small.
"The self-proclaimed president of the Republic of Belarus is used to keeping his nose in the wind. And seeing how Russia is weakening against the background of the war, it will resist to the last the direct involvement of the Belarusian army in the conflict, Vlad Voloshyn predicts. - Regarding the creation of a joint grouping of the troops of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, this, like the training that has been going on for six months near the Belarusian-Ukrainian borders, is aimed, first of all, at keeping significant forces of the Armed Forces in that area. Which we could use at the front."
Russian provocations from the Republic of Belarus are possible in order to "cover up" a possible escalation in the South - this is the opinion expressed by political expert Mykhailo Chaplyga.
"The probability of a full-scale Belarusian invasion is quite low. Firstly, during this time we managed to build a good engineering line of defense. Secondly, everything there is very well mined. Thirdly, on those frontiers there is not a parquet, but a real territorial defense of the Armed Forces - professionals and motivated fighters," the expert explains.
What can be expected, he believes, is a possible move by mercenaries from the Russian Federation with the aim of diverting our armed forces from other directions.
"We should also expect possible air and missile attacks on the critical infrastructure of the western region with the aim of causing damage to displaced enterprises and disrupting logistics supply chains. In addition, Russian provocations from the Republic of Belarus are possible in order to cover up a possible escalation in the South, Mykhailo Chaplyga notes. - RB is a base for launching strikes on Ukraine and a source of some weapons for the Russian Federation. At the same time, Lukashenko understands that Belarusians are psychologically not ready for a war with Ukrainians, which means that this may lead to the transfer of hostilities to the territory of the Republic of Belarus and a revolution with a change in the ruling regime."
