The number of proposals for negotiations from the Russians will increase, because the occupiers do not have enough reserves to replenish their losses. This was emphasized by the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak. Do you agree with this statement? What are the chances of negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow in the near future? Edition "Comments" turned to experts with these questions.
The head of the Institute of Public Policy and Consulting (INPOLIT), political consultant Serhiy Bykov thinks as follows: "After the crimes committed by the Russians in Buch, Irpen and other settlements, after the shooting of civilians, negotiations can begin only from the moment the Russians voluntarily withdraw their troops to their positions February 23, 2022".
According to the expert, the negotiations are actually needed exclusively by the Russian side in order to regroup its own forces and accumulate reserves in order to try to attack again.
"I believe that real peace talks will begin only after the de-occupation of Crimea and Donbass," says Serhii Bykov. - Only strategic defeats of Russia will be able to bring it to the table of constructive negotiations. Otherwise, holding negotiations will benefit only the aggressor country, as it will represent the political leadership of Russia in a "civilized" light. And after all of Russia's crimes against humanity, the killing of prisoners and the shooting of civilians, the Russian leadership certainly cannot be called civilized. I am sure that the war in Ukraine will end with the complete defeat of Russia and an international tribunal over its leadership."
Political expert Mykhailo Chaplyga agrees with Mykhailo Podoliak that the number of various proposals from Russia for negotiations will increase. Through different channels.
"But the reason, it seems to me, is different. It is already clear that Russia is bogged down at the front, where the situation has entered the stage of sluggish positional struggle. And this is fatal for any political regime of any empire, Mykhailo Chaplyga emphasizes. — Empires live as long as they expand. Then all the focus of attention is on the periphery, and in the center the regimes can do whatever they want. If the periphery chokes on advancement, centrifugal movements within the empires begin, as well as political ferment. Because the focus of attention is transferred to internal problems. In order to respond to internal problems that are growing like a snowball (as a result of powerful sanctions and external Western isolation), it is necessary to at least freeze the problems on the periphery. Otherwise, internal vacillations can lead to a palace coup.”
The history of world empires, their rise and fall, teaches exactly this, the expert notes.
"Therefore," Chaplyga concludes, "Russia will indeed increasingly seek opportunities for negotiations and new channels of communication." And here I completely agree with Mykhailo Podolyak. But whether she will succeed in this - we will see in the near future."
