According to calculations think tank of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Russian army has lost almost 40% of its pre-war fleet of tanks after nine months of fighting in Ukraine. Experts note that Moscow has a large amount of Cold War equipment in its warehouses, so it can continue the war in Ukraine for some time..
The percentage of equipment losses on key models of tanks of the Russian Federation reaches 50%, which are currently used in battles. According to analysts IISS, this forces Russia to use Cold War stockpiles.
In turn, the number of Ukrainian tanks, according to experts, has increased due to a large part of captured Russian tanks and the supply of Soviet-era tanks from Western allies.
John Chipman, director general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the war in Ukraine was a "political and military failure for Russia," highlighting leadership flaws and weaponry deficiencies, despite the Kremlin's efforts to modernize it.
"Russia's actions over the past year have raised questions not only about the competence of its military and senior military leadership, but also about the work of the command", he said, launching the IISS annual audit of the military balance of the world's armed forces.
The IISS data is based mainly on open sources — from drones, satellites and information from the battlefield, collected from the beginning of the war until the end of November.
У calculations The IISS says that the number of Russian tanks in its army has decreased by 38% from 2927 to 1800, especially the modernized T-72B3, which was first adopted by the Russian army in 2013, suffered heavy losses.
In addition, according to Chipman, slow industrial production "forces Moscow to rely on its old weapons."
Russia's overoptimism led it to suffer heavy tank losses early in the war, particularly during the failed attack on Kyiv, where a large number of tanks and armored vehicles moving in convoy were destroyed on the roads north of the capital. Many tanks at the time were captured or towed away by tractors as the assault failed.
Russian troops expected to be met in Ukraine, and in some cases wore dress uniforms, believing that after the blitzkrieg the tanks would be used to parade through the streets of Kyiv. Instead, they were repulsed by Ukrainian artillery and infantry from anti-tank weapons.
To date, there are no signs of improvement in tank tactics: several dozen tanks are estimated to have been lost in fighting since the end of January, during the failed attempt to capture Vugledar. Using reconnaissance drones, Ukraine was able to knock out tanks with its artillery.
But despite heavy losses on the battlefield, Russia maintains a large number of old tanks in long-term storage, currently estimated at 5000, which means Moscow can continue its attrition strategy for some time to come.
However, the number of tanks in Ukraine increased from 858 to 953 as it partially offset its own losses by seizing approximately 500 tanks from Russia, of which it "deployed a significant number," the IISS analyst said Henry Boyd. Ukraine also received a significant amount of Soviet equipment from Poland, the Czech Republic and other states that had such stocks.
Kyiv hopes to receive a wave of Western tanks and combat vehicles over the next few months, which it plans to use to make a breakthrough on the battlefield. Ben Barry, ground warfare analyst, said he estimated Ukraine would receive about a quarter of the 1000 tanks and combat vehicles it has requested.
This could give Ukraine a tactical advantage, Barry said, if the heavy equipment is accompanied by sufficient ammunition and spare parts. Even so, the analyst said, it is unclear whether Kyiv has enough combat power to quickly push back Russian forces.
Analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concluded that as a result, we can expect another bloody year of war, in which fighting will be unpredictable.
