The statement of the newly elected president of Moldova, Maia Sandu, about the need to withdraw Russian peacekeepers from Transnistria and replace them with the OSCE mission caused a great stir. Various analysts immediately drew analogies with Nagorno-Karabakh - territories that Azerbaijan returned by military force.
Is Transnistria threatened by war and what does it mean for Ukraine, ElitExpert found out.
Sandu's plans and Russia's reaction
On the eve of the elections, Maia Sandu raised the issue of Transnistria, which is painful for Moldova, saying that from now on no negotiations should be held with representatives of the left bank of the Dniester.
"There is nothing for Chisinau to discuss with Tiraspol, as at this stage one already got the impression that some during the bilateral negotiations were not looking for ways to solve problems, but were discussing new corruption schemes. Therefore, I do not see what can be discussed with the Tiraspol regime, I do not see the point in any consultations with Krasnoselsky (the "president" of PMR — ed.)," said Sandu before the elections.
She also added that it is possible to return the territories with the help of Ukraine. She did not specify what this aid should represent, but even then it gave rise to rumors about a possible war, in which Sandu plans to involve Kyiv.
Now, being the president, she decided to develop the topic:
"Due to the fact that there is no danger of armed clashes for a long time, the position of the Moldovan side is that the mission of Russian peacekeepers should be transformed into a civilian mission under the auspices of the OSCE," the president said the day before.
Opponents accused Sanda of trying to create a "second Karabakh" with the hope of Ukraine's participation, and the defeated ex-president Igor Dodon is already threatening to bring the people to the streets.
Russia's reaction was also not long in coming.
"We hear her conceptual statements both about the priority of the European direction in the development of Moldova's foreign relations, and about the fact that she wants to maintain good relations with the Russian Federation. I think that good relations with any country presuppose taking into account mutual interests, taking into account those agreements that were reached before," emphasized the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov.
Three scenarios
The further development of events assumes three scenarios. The war that analysts are talking about is unlikely at first glance. Today, the Moldovan army is unable to withstand the forces of Transnistria and the Russian contingent. On the other hand, it was not for nothing that Sandu assumed to solve the problem with the help of Ukraine: if Kyiv and Chisinau unite their efforts, PMR will have a difficult time.
However, does Kyiv need it? Moscow will clearly not sit idly by and watch as an important region is taken away from them. First of all, this will certainly affect the Donbass, where hostilities may intensify. In addition, if it gets really hot, Russia can try to provide military support to the PMR directly, although it is risky - the shortest way is through the Odesa region, and entering its territory, the Russian Federation will actually declare war on Ukraine. Of course, the Kremlin will most likely not take such a step, but Kiev, before agreeing to help Sandu, should not forget about its eastern borders.
The second option is an economic blockade. Moldova and Ukraine do not have to put pressure on the unrecognized republic in this way. But again, one should expect a reaction from Russia.
The third option - everything will remain as it was before. It is quite possible that Sandu's words about the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers are nothing more than banal populism, calculated on "their" voters. The fact is that in Moldova they are increasingly talking about early parliamentary elections, in which, among others, Sandu's party will participate.
Moreover, the power of the president in Moldova is limited, and today, December 2, the parliament completely approved the reduction of presidential powers - the Information and Security Service was removed from the president's authority.
