The question "when Russia will run out of missiles" has been discussed by many experts and politicians since the beginning of the war. After the recent shelling of Ukrainian cities, it is relevant again.
Military and political columnist of the "Information Resistance" group, Odesa Oleksandr Kovalenko provided his comments on this issue.
To begin with, we must understand that concepts end at the same time appropriately and inappropriately, this is such a paradox. And in order to understand this paradox, it is necessary to distinguish between two types of missile weapons of the Russian Federation, namely, renewable and non-renewable.
Renewable is a missile weapon that Russia can produce, but it has certain problems with it. In particular, due to the lack of foreign components. So, for example, Russia cannot currently manufacture Kh-47M "Kinzhal" missiles at all, since they contain more than 130 foreign components. Mostly electronics.
Interestingly, most of these components were supplied to Russia by the world leader in integrated circuits from the USA - Analog Device. Without American microcircuits, the production of "Daggers" in Russia is impossible.
In turn, the Russian Federation can produce KR "Calibre", X-101 and X-59, but they also contain a significant number of foreign components, especially microcircuits. In the conditions of sanctions, missile manufacturers counted on their stocks in the first months of the war, but the stocks began to run out and now the only hope is smuggling.
Contraband deliveries are rare and do not ensure the production of the required number of spare parts and microcircuits. According to available information, the connecting link in this smuggling is Tajikistan.
That is, Russia can produce the aforementioned missiles, but with pauses in production and artificially. In the conditions of a full-scale war, they need up to a dozen of these types of missiles per day, but the real production potential is 1-2 missiles per week, provided that all the necessary components are available.
Therefore, Russia can now bombard Ukraine not with a hundred missiles every day and 2-3 thousand per month, but with several dozens - approximately once every 2-3 months. Feel the difference and that's the point. In Russia, the potential for unlimited use of a wide range of missile weapons has ended, and it is experiencing the most acute shortage.
The other side is a non-renewable missile weapon that Russia inherited from the USSR and which it is unable to manufacture. These are, for example, Kh-22 missiles. Russia can now only remove them from storage, restore them and, depending on their suitability for use, send them to airfields. Technically and technologically, the Russians cannot restore the production lines of these missiles.
That is, these are precisely those missile weapons that really fully expire and at some point they will not be available at all.
