China believes that Russia's war against Ukraine will end this summer, a Japanese publication reports Nikkei Asia.
The media believe that behind the unexpected "peace proposal" from China, there is probably a prediction by Chinese military experts that the war will end this summer.
In particular, a report by a leading think tank was published in Beijing a few months ago. The publication links the sudden change in China's position precisely to this report.
According to journalists, such data can be found in a report by a leading think tank in Beijing, which is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party and reports directly to the Chinese military. Analysts conducted a simulation of the war and concluded that hostilities would end around the summer of 2023, and then the economies of Russia and Ukraine would be too depleted to continue fighting in the fall.
At the same time, the report emphasizes that Russia can allegedly winя, but this may be an attempt to please the leadership of his country, which is inclined to support Moscow. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the large-scale aid package from the United States for Ukraine also ends in the summer of this year, the publication emphasizes.
After avoiding getting too deeply involved in Russia's war in Ukraine last year, China suddenly offered a peace proposal last month. A prediction by Chinese military experts that the war will end this summer is likely behind this turnaround.
When more than 200 world leaders and officials gathered in Munich last month for a security conference, Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, told the audience that China would soon announce a plan to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
"We will put forward China's position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and remain firmly on the side of peace and dialogue," Wang said during a February 18 address.
China has officially released its peace plan of 12 points on February 24, exactly one year after Russia began the invasion.
Beijing believes that Europe is still open to direct investment and technology transfer to China, and that improved relations with the region will lead to economic recovery.
With this in mind, many in the Chinese government are calling for Beijing to join before the ceasefire talks begin.
The second goal is to maintain friendly relations with Ukraine.
It is noted that even when most Western countries attacked China due to reports of human rights violations, Ukraine remained silent on this topic.
"Together with Russia, we cannot afford to lose Ukraine," said a source in the Chinese government.
The peace plan includes provisions on economic recovery, suggesting that China is already considering providing economic aid.
The ultimate desired goal is for China to play a leading role in achieving a ceasefire.
The best-case scenario for China would be for Russia and Ukraine to begin negotiations after the Chinese leader presents Putin with a peace plan.
It is noted that if China fails to become a peacemaker, the consequences will undermine the authority and prestige of Xi Jinping.
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