Karl Marx said that history repeats itself — first as tragedy and then as farce. The Father of Communism was right, and his words have never been more appropriate than now, when Vladimir Putin's failed invasion of Ukraine is now in its second year. He writes about it The Telegraph in his publication.
The Russian president is either worried or has bad orientation. Otherwise, why is he behaving the way he is now?
There has been a lot of hype in recent weeks about Putin launching a major new offensive to completely weaken Ukraine. At the Munich Security Conference last month, Western leaders held their breath, wondering whether Kyiv would have the resources to hold out.
But the Russians were already stuck, and the tanks were stuck. The success they expected has not yet been achieved. Doesn't that remind you of anything? More than a year after Putin's "special military operation" began, we are witnessing a horrific repeat of the initial invasion: a repeat of the failed strategies and false assumptions that filled the Kremlin's military plans.
Putin's military strategy continues to be ill-conceived, especially when it comes to climate conditions. After the emergence of videos of Russian tanks struggling to make their way through Ukrainian mud, it seems that preparations for the thaw that one would expect during a spring offensive have not been made. This is surprising, as this is exactly what got the Russians into trouble last year.
Another dictator in such a distant history - Adolf Hitler - did the same during Operation Barbarossa in 1941. In Russian, there is even a word for this - "off-road" (the time of year when movement on dirt roads or rough terrain becomes difficult).
Even a simple student of military strategy knows that offensive maneuvers using heavy tanks and jeeps are not very well suited to the quagmire, but the Kremlin has been caught twice.
Moreover, in the new offensive, as before, the senseless tactics of the First World War are used, which are not suitable for confronting the Ukrainian army of the 2st century, which is well equipped, trained and highly motivated. Russian tanks with their low ground clearance cannot withstand weather changes. Western tanks can: CR2 and Leopard XNUMX have much higher ground clearance.
Perhaps Putin was pinning all his hopes on restoring the fighting spirit of the servicemen after months of hard nights and bitter cold. If so, it was another miscalculation.
The morale of Ukrainian soldiers fighting for the survival of their country, on their own territory, knowing that Western tanks are on their way, will always be higher than that of the Russians, who are pushed out of the trenches under pressure and thrown into the meat grinder with rusty weapons, without preparation inexperienced commanders. In such conditions, no army can fight and win, and no amount of Putin's speeches will change this fundamental dynamic.
Perhaps the Russian president is counting on the dominance of the air, as the spring weather will clear the sky. But it would also make it easier for Ukrainian forces to shoot down its planes, especially with Western Patriot missile systems, whose batteries can shoot down planes as well as incoming missiles and drones.
We may see a repeat of the scenes over Kiev last year: Russian planes go down in smoke and pilots eject.
In addition, clearer skies will help Western intelligence services, which transmit critical information to Ukrainian forces, allowing them to strike far behind the front lines with the help of HIMARS. We should expect new strikes on Russian headquarters and logistics hubs.
In addition, the Kremlin's aerial intelligence gathering was recently disrupted by the destruction of a Beriev A-50 spy plane worth hundreds of millions of pounds.
Putin, apparently, is either deeply worried or has a bad sense of direction. In this major offensive, he faces the same dilemma as in the last: either he will cross his fingers and hope that the West loses its resolve, or his conscripts will die in vain, leaving their grief-stricken mothers behind.
Ukrainian troops will dominate the battlefields this spring and summer. Russian failures will be repeated. New weapons will be sent to Kyiv, and the determination to defend its freedom will grow. The Kremlin will be frantically looking for an opportunity to change the course of events — that's why we need to keep an eye on chemical weapons.
