The average nominal salary in Ukraine in 2023 will increase by 19,6%, and the real (inflation adjusted) by 3,9%. The July forecast is somewhat better compared to April, when the NBU expected real wages to grow by 3,7%. This is reported in "Inflation report» of the National Bank of Ukraine.
As noted in the report, the competition of enterprises for qualified workers, along with the revival of economic activity, as well as payments in the budget sector, in particular, to the military, led to a certain improvement in the financial condition of households.
Indirect estimates based on tax data, as well as on salaries offered in vacancies on job search sites, indicate at least further growth in nominal wages. And according to the data on salary payments to bank cards, wages also increased in real terms. This is particularly explained by the slowdown in inflation, the NBU notes.
As before, social payments from the budget and indexation of pensions provided significant support to the incomes of the population.
The recovery of the economy will lead to a further revival of demand for labor force, which against the background of still high inflation will support significant growth rates of nominal labor income, especially in sectors where there will be a shortage of skilled labor. In the post-war period, this will be further facilitated by increased competition with foreign employers for mobile labor, the NBU predicts.
"Real labor income growth will resume this year, but the pace will remain fairly subdued due to still high inflation and sluggish productivity growth," the report said.
According to the NBU forecast, in 2024 the nominal salary will increase by 16,1%, the real salary will increase by 5,2%, in 2025 the nominal salary will increase by 12,8%, and the real salary will increase by 5,4%.
As a reminder, the Pension Fund of Ukraine (PFU) has approved the indicator of the official average salary for the first quarter of 2023. In March, it amounted to 13 hryvnias and grew by 423% over the year. At the same time, annual inflation in March was 3,1%, which means a drop in real wages by about 21,3%.
According to the government's forecast, in 2023 the average salary will increase to 18 hryvnias. However, due to inflation, the real salary will increase by only 261%.
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