In January, Russia suffered a record budget deficit of 1,76 trillion rubles ($25 billion). This is more than the planned annual expenses of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. It seems that the sanctions are beginning to affect Russia's ability to wage war, the publication writes Forbes.
Western intelligence and analysts were preparing Ukraine for a new wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation, which was supposed to begin in late January or early February.
Back in December 2022, the Minister of Defense of Russia Serhiy Shoigu announced about increasing the number of armed forces to 1,5 million. This meant that the Russian army would be replenished by 400 soldiers.
That the Russian Federation is preparing to mobilize 500 recruits in the coming weeks, wrote and The Guardian with reference to unnamed Ukrainian intelligence officers.
Politico, already citing Russian sources, confirmed the number of 500 and the inevitability of the second wave of mobilization.
Such figures fully correspond to the concept of military strategy. Russia was preparing a large-scale offensive with the involvement of 320 - 000 soldiers, which in any case would end with significant losses on the offensive side. This reserve must be prepared even before such losses occur.
Instead, Russia has already launched an offensive (at least part of the planned operations), but the mobilization has not been officially announced.
One of the reasons for this is probably the failure of the implementation of the Russian state budget in January. In the previous month he received half as much incomethan expenses. It the biggest deficit budget of Russia since 1998, writes Bloomberg.
At the same time, Russia will not abandon the covert mobilization that has not stopped since the fall. By danimi According to the ISW Institute for the Study of War, the total number of those mobilized has long exceeded 300. Russia has been conducting "cryptomobilization" for the past two months.
How big is the chasm
For comparison, in January, Russia received a hole in the budget larger than the planned annual expenditures of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. If converted at the dollar rate, the monthly budget deficit of the Russian Federation is about UAH 900 billion. The entire annual budget of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine for 2023 is UAH 857 billion.
But the main thing is that it is difficult for Russia to significantly reduce expenses. After all, the Russian Federation invested an average of 780 billion rubles per month on the army and security forces this year. Moreover, the real amount can be much higher. How much higher depends on the number of troops.
If the number of Russian military forces is doubled, then the revenues of the federal budget will not be enough to cover these costs.
So far, Russia has financial reserves to cover the budget deficit - the so-called National Welfare Fund of the Russian Federation ($ 155,2 billion as of February 01.02.2023, XNUMX) and gold and currency reserves that were not seized by the West. It is not clear how many of them will be enough, given that in January, the Ministry of Finance of Russia for the first time sold from the Gold and Yuan Fund for 38,5 billion rubles ($530 million) to cover the deficit.
It will become clear in the next couple of months how sustainable the trend of reducing the revenues of the budget of the Russian Federation will be. After all, January can be a peak period.
How much does mobilization cost?
Equipping one soldier costs $7000–10 depending on quality. This money is used to buy a bulletproof vest, helmet, clothes, weapons, sleeping bag, first aid kit and other auxiliary equipment. Next - expenses for training and training of soldiers, which should last for two months.
On average, one trained fighter with the minimum level of equipment, training and weapons will cost the budget of the Russian Federation $15.
If we talk about the mobilization of 500 new recruits, which the media wrote about, then its cost will be about $000 billion.
But these are not all infusions. An increase in the number of troops will lead to an increase in the cost of salaries, ammunition and related costs. This is still about $200 per day for one soldier and an additional $3 billion every month.
Under such conditions, the defense budget can significantly exceed a trillion rubles per month and become a critical expenditure.
Putin's new private armies
Assessing the hole in the budget, Russia is looking for alternative ways to finance the army. In particular, it plans to create a number of PVCs at the expense of the largest Russian companies. One of the first assigned to organize Gazprom.
This is a non-standard approach in the market of military services. Usually, large corporations with billions of dollars in revenue avoid financing military operations, and even more so PMCs, fearing sanctions and problems with international contracts.
However, there are fewer and fewer people willing to sign a contract with Wagner, given the dubious fame and short life expectancy of their attack aircraft at the front. Therefore, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation begins to compete with "Wagner" for "cheap" manpower in the colonies.
In the Russian army, the "Storm" battalion was created, which will be formed from prisoners. The conditions for its participants are roughly the same as those of Wagner: a six-month contract and the removal of criminal records after its completion.
It is also planned to create one of the military companies in Belarus, write D.W.
The new private armies are likely to help delay the second wave of mobilization in Russia. The only question is their number.
Despite the demonstrably skeptical attitude towards sanctions in the Kremlin, after 12 months of full-scale war, they are beginning to have a real impact on the plans of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Sanctions should not be expected to force Russia to stop the war, but they may significantly limit the resources to wage it.
