According to forecasts, the global economy will continue to recover in 2022. But there are factors that can prevent growth, пишет Bloomberg.
According to experts' forecasts, a steady recovery of the world economy should begin in the next hour. However, there are a number of quite real threats — in particular, the new strain of the Omicron coronavirus, rising prices of products, the situation in China, and the new crisis in the Eurozone.
Mutations of COVID-19
Another strain of the Omicron coronavirus may turn out to be more contagious and deadly, which, in turn, may hit the economy. According to analysts' forecasts, a return to strict restrictions even for three months is fraught with a slowdown in economic growth in 2022 to 4,2%.
Inflation
If at the beginning of 2021 it was predicted that the USA would end the year with inflation at 2%, now this indicator is already close to 7%. In particular, analysts attributed the worsening of the situation in relations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine to the stimulus of inflation, which in turn leads to an increase in gas prices.
Strengthening the policy of the Federal Reserve System of the USA
For the markets, the tight policy of the Fed means a problem, especially when there are "bubbles" in them. According to analysts' forecasts, if the regulator raises the interest rate three times and announces its readiness to reach 2,5%, the USA will face a recession in 2023.
Chinese problems
The growth of the Chinese economy in 2022 is likely to slow down to 3% against the expected 5,7%. Analysts believe that this will lead to a "domino effect". The reason is the policy of "zero tolerance" to the coronavirus, regardless of the strain, as well as ignoring the consequences of the crisis in the real estate sector.
Political upheavals in Europe
In addition to the Ukrainian factor, analysts also pay attention to the upcoming elections in Italy and France. If the Eurosceptics win, the price of loans for these countries will rise, and with a sovereign debt spread of 300 basis points, a recession may occur.
Coagulation of emergency stimuli
According to UBS, in 2022, governments will cut aid to approximately 2,5% of global GDP. This factor will have a particularly strong impact on the economies of Japan, Canada, Italy and Great Britain.
The recession of developing economies
An increase in the Fed rate usually increases the dollar. This causes capital outflow, and sometimes currency crises in developing countries. In 2013 and 2018, Argentina, South Africa and Turkey suffered the most from this. According to analysts' calculations, in addition to the listed economies, the economies of Brazil and Egypt are also at risk in 2022.
Rising food prices
The situation with the availability of products can noticeably worsen even compared to the Arab Spring of 2011, especially in countries such as Sudan, Lebanon and Algeria. This means the risk of new instability in the region.
Consequences of Brexit
According to analysts, a full-scale "trade war" between the EU and Great Britain is unlikely. However, this does not exclude problems at the customs borders. Which, in turn, can lead to an increase in consumer prices.
War of superpowers
Escalation around Taiwan can also have a negative impact on the global economy. The agency calls the "war of the superpowers" the worst possible development of the situation. The second scenario refers to sanctions that can freeze relations between China and the United States. One of the negative scenarios is the collapse of Taiwanese semiconductor production, which will hit a whole list of industries.
Earlier, the IMF called the new strain of coronavirus the main risk for the world economy.
