On November 3, the US presidential election will be held. For Ukraine, their result is very important, as our state has a certain dependence on Washington. Also, the elections are interesting because they found a place for the Ukrainian "trace".
ElitExpert's correspondent understood why our country is here and what to expect from the elections.
Why will Trump win/lose?
According to opinion polls, current President Trump lags behind former Vice President Biden by about ten points, but in the last election, polls also predicted that the current owner of the White House would lose. Most likely, the intrigue will be preserved until the last.
As for the current President Donald Trump, he benefited, paradoxically as it may sound, from the protest movements of Black Lives Matter, whose members oppose Trump. Not all Americans liked the mass riots and pogroms that took place under the slogan Black lives matter, which strengthened the president's position. In general, there is an opinion that the population of the United States is tired of protests and riots, support for the anti-racist campaign is decreasing, and the slogan "Law and order" raised by Trump is gaining popularity.
In addition, the president fulfilled most of his pre-election promises, which favorably distinguishes him from populist politicians. During his term of office, the US economy went up rapidly, agriculture, energy and infrastructure improved. At the same time, the unemployment rate was one of the lowest in American history.
However, the word "was" is the most important. The fact is that all Trump's successes were crossed out by the coronavirus. It was the pandemic that caused the most damage to Trump's positions. Record unemployment, when tens of millions of people lost their jobs, mass layoffs — all this, of course, did not affect the support of the authorities. This factor can become decisive already in the loss of the president.
And, again, Black lives matter. The movement not only attracted new voters under Trump's banner, but also gathered his opponents. The image of a racist has long been gathered for the president, and therefore the black and Latin American population will surely vote for Trump's competitor, as well as "white sympathizers".
Why will Biden win/lose?
Joe Biden has established himself as an experienced politician with many years of experience supporting "traditional American values." This factor attracts many Americans, and also distinguishes Trump, who entered politics from business, in the background. His career in Washington began with the position of senator, which he held almost half a century ago. From 1973 to 2009, he was a senator from the state of Delaware. His first presidential campaign started in 1987. To date, this is already the third campaign in the struggle for the White House.
As mentioned above, national minorities, to put it mildly, dislike Trump, which Biden took advantage of by supporting Black lives matter. In addition, the presidential candidate is "his" in the circles of the American elite, unlike Trump himself, and is more convenient for them in the role of head of state. For this reason, Biden is still called "the last hope of the elites."
In addition, Trump, like any president, has his own "anti-rating", which also benefits Biden.
However, there are obvious disadvantages — Biden is about to turn 78 years old, and some Americans are wondering whether Biden is capable of fulfilling the duties of the head of state in an era that requires quick and effective decisions. At the same time, the candidate from the Democrats manages to make gross mistakes, as if confirming rumors that it is already too late for him to be president. For example, in 2012, advertising his political experience, he told the crowd: "I knew eight presidents, three of them intimately."
And what we talked about at the very beginning: the "Ukrainian trace". A tangible blow to Biden's chances of victory was the scandal with his son Hunter, who worked for a million-dollar salary at the Ukrainian gas company "Burysma" when his father was the vice president of the United States and supervised Ukraine. Biden Sr. was accused of corruption related to affairs with his son in Ukraine, in particular, it was about how Hunter had a fight with the father of the top manager of the Burisma company, on which his salary depended (the son of the former vice president received only about 4 million dollars). That is, the presidential candidate is suspected of having facilitated his son's employment through his connections and in exchange for certain favors and preferences to Ukrainian businessmen and officials.
It is important to emphasize that the American voter is sensitive to the topic of corruption and abuse of power, so the Ukrainian factor can play its role.
