After the unsuccessful mutiny of the "Wagner Group", Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted that the militant group was fully financed from the Russian budget. This statement opens up new opportunities for prosecutors of the International Criminal Court in the investigation of mass war crimes by the Wagner fighters, who are directly financed by Russia. About this the Voice of America.
"For the first time in history, the judges of the International Criminal Court or any other court consider it necessary to issue an arrest warrant against the leader or high-ranking official of a country that is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, […] countries that are supposed to protect the UN charter. So this apolitical and fact-based investigation is being conducted by my office and will stand the test of time," he says. Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Karim Khan.
However, the child deportation case is not the only case being investigated by the International Criminal Court, which could potentially lead to new arrest warrants for Putin and Russia's top leadership.
According to the head of the ISS Piotr Hofmanskyi, new arrest warrants depend primarily on the actions of the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court.
"He (the prosecutor of the ICC, - ed.) can make a request for an arrest warrant to the pre-trial judges of the ICC, who will decide whether there are grounds for issuing future arrest warrants. But of course, the prosecutor clearly stated that he is actively engaged in new investigations in Ukraine, as well as in other countries, and we expect that there will be more actions in this regard." - says Hofmansky.
One of the cases that could lead to similar investigations and potentially new arrest warrants for Putin is the war crimes case of Wagner's so-called private military company. The legal status of this group in Russia is still not fully understood.
Private military companies are prohibited by Russian law, but Moscow used the "Wagner Group" in cooperation with the Russian army - in Ukraine, in particular, in the battles in Bakhmut.
It is also known that Putin personally signed decrees on amnesty for prisoners who were recruited from the colonies and sent to the war with Ukraine as part of the "Wagner" PMC. He also presented the "Wagnerians" with state awards of Russia. At the same time, in June, Putin admitted that if they "don't have a contract with the Ministry of Defense", then the state "does not have any legal obligations" towards them.
"Wagner's mercenaries have been under US and other sanctions since 2017, but by denying control over the Wagner Group, Russia avoided legal responsibility for its actions. Putin's new confessions may advance the case of establishing a connection between "Wagner" and the Russian state. Putin's words have potentially very serious implications in terms of holding Russia accountable for Wagner's actions and holding Putin personally accountable as the leader of Russia." - believes Professor of Law at University College London Philip Sands
Why it is difficult to prove the connection of the "Wagner group" with the authorities of Russia - explains the professor of law at the West Point Academy Jennifer Maddox.
"When the Wagner Group violates international law, is it at the behest of the Russian authorities or through direct control? So, for example, if it is proved that the fighters of "Wagner" are participating in the deliberate killing of civilians, it is necessary to look at whether, at the moment when they committed these murders, they were in the chain of command, which included Russian officers, or whether it was only the command of the group.", – says Professor Maddox.
In her opinion, it is precisely because of the "ambiguity" of the organization that it is difficult to connect the behavior of "Wagner" with the state authorities, however, she emphasizes, it is all a matter of evidence.
One of the proofs of the direct connections of the Russian authorities with the militants of the "Wagner group" was recently provided by Putin himself. He admitted that Moscow from May 2022 to May 2023 "fully financed" the mercenaries, spending about 1 billion dollars on them from the budget. According to experts in international law, this statement by Putin will make it easier for international courts to prosecute the Russian leadership for crimes committed by Wagner militants.
"[Putin's] words have potentially very serious implications in terms of holding Russia accountable for Wagner's actions and holding Putin personally accountable as the leader of Russia," - believes a professor of law at University College London Philip Sands.
While funding alone may not be enough evidence to prosecute someone for an international crime, Putin will no longer be able to deny "sufficient control" or direct ties to the "Wagner group," lawyers say.
"The question is whether it is possible to call the Wagner group [de facto] a state body of Russia, because there is an actual relationship between the formation and the state, and now we know much more about the actual relationship due to the recognition of President Putin. This recognition indicates that the Russian state fully finances and equips this group." - says Jennifer Maddox.
She agrees that the statement about the financing of the Wagner Group demonstrates that the so-called PMC has a high level of dependence on the Russian state. Due to the connection with the Wagner Group, which Putin himself directly stated, he may be the target of the investigation. Ambassador of the State Department on War Crimes David Schaeffer
According to David Schaeffer, the ex-War Crimes Ambassador of the State Department, the International Criminal Court may investigate the connections of the Wagner Group with the leadership of Russia, which could potentially lead to new arrest warrants for Putin in the case of crimes committed by Wagner militants.
According to him, the International Criminal Court is very experienced in dealing with groups like Wagner, as well as government agencies and governments that support and finance these non-state groups.
“There is a high probability [of new arrest warrants] because President Putin continues to expose himself on an almost daily basis for committing atrocious crimes or inciting serious crimes. Due to his connection with the "Wagner Group", which Putin directly stated himself, he may be the target of the investigation. And in the end, a warrant for Putin's arrest may be issued by the International Criminal Court due to the activities of the "Wagner Group", - says Schaeffer in a comment to the Voice of America.
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