Yesterday, November 15, the second round of presidential elections took place in Moldova. The victory went to the former Prime Minister of the country Maye Sandu, who overtook President Ihor Dodon.
ElitExpert found out what to expect from the new president and what his victory means for Ukraine.
Everything was decided by the diaspora
Maya Sandu was ahead of the current head of state Igor Dodon by 15% — 57% against 42% according to the calculations of 100% of election protocols. Major cities of the country, youth and the numerous diaspora in Europe, working in EU countries, voted for her. In turn, Dodon was supported mostly on the periphery by the country's citizens living in Russia.
It is interesting that there are no loud claims of falsifications and protest actions organized by the losing party in the country. Dodon issued a statement in which he thanked all those who voted in the elections and called on all participants in the election campaign to remain calm, as Moldova does not need destabilization.
A politician with a Western orientation
48-year-old Maya Sandu ran for president for the second time. In 2016, she was opposed by the same Igor Dodon, but that time the victory went to him, which is not surprising - for several years pro-Western politicians were in power, who disappointed the country's residents, and then they preferred the president with different views. This time, everything happened exactly, and vice versa.
In June 2019, Sandu was appointed to the post of prime minister, which was facilitated by a coalition agreement between the Party of Socialists of Dodon and the ACUM political bloc, but a few months later, the parliament passed a vote of no confidence in her government at the initiative of the socialists.
"I regret that I allowed Sandu to become the prime minister and signed the decree on her appointment, she proved that she cannot do anything for the country. And now she wants to become the president, because there will be no responsibility," Dodon said on the eve of the elections.
As the prime minister, she emphasized that the priority of her government will be the establishment of relations with the EU. She added that she is open to dialogue with Russia, but, nevertheless, she has developed the image of an anti-Russian politician.
Transnistrian issue
Sandu's pre-election program concerned personnel reforms, business stimulation, increasing pensions and rural development. In general, a more or less standard program of a presidential candidate. Her promises in the field of foreign policy seem more interesting to us.
Literally next to Moldova is Transnistria - an unrecognized republic formed as a result of the declaration of independence from the Moldavian SSR in 1990 and the subsequent military conflict. Moldova has not recognized a branch of the PMR, and the question of the status of this territory remains unresolved. Since then, a slow-moving dialogue on conflict resolution has been underway. Although every president promised to resolve this issue and return PMR to Moldova.
Sandu also touched on this topic before the elections, saying that no more negotiations should be held with representatives of the left bank of the Dniester.
"There is nothing for Chisinau to discuss with Tiraspol, as at this stage one already got the impression that some during the bilateral negotiations were not looking for ways to solve problems, but were discussing new corruption schemes. Therefore, I don't see what can be discussed with the Tiraspol regime, I don't see the point in any consultations with Krasnoselsky," Sandu said before the elections.
She also added that it is possible to return the territories with the help of Ukraine. She did not specify what kind of help she was talking about, but many concluded that she was referring to the resumption of the military conflict in which Sandu wants to draw Kyiv.
However, there is one "but" - a Russian military contingent of about 1700 soldiers is stationed in the PMR. It is obvious that in the event of an escalation of the conflict, the Kremlin will take appropriate measures, although it will be extremely difficult to provide military support to the unrecognized republic - the Russian Federation does not border the PMR and it is possible to get there only by crossing the territory of Ukraine. It is unlikely that Sandu will take such a serious step. Most likely, her words quoted above are nothing more than a PR move before the elections. Moreover, Ukraine is unlikely to help Moldova, because if Kiev intervenes in the Transnistrian conflict, the Donbass will surely flare up again.
Struggle with Parliament
Maya Sandu will have enough problems even without military conflicts. The powers of the president in Moldova are limited, as the state is a parliamentary-presidential republic, and the main role is played by the parliament. And here the coalition is under the control of the same Igor Dodon.
According to experts, Sandu will try to hold early elections to the parliament, but Dodon's socialists will certainly not give up their positions so easily. And this already guarantees, at least, a political confrontation that will move to the streets. Protest actions are a proven way to put pressure on the authorities.
