Experts believe that 2020 has become the starting point for a new complex era in the history of mankind. One of its main motives will be a cold war between the United States and China, which will bring the world "an age of chaos," according to a Deutsche Bank study prepared by the bank's strategist Jim Reid and his team, as transmits RBC.
Thus, the era of globalization, which has lasted since 1980, is coming to an end. In a report prepared by the bank's strategist Jim Reid and his colleagues, it is said that the new era will be characterized by the rise of China's economy over the United States and the accompanying tension in relations between them, the continuation of the growth of global debt, the policy of "helicopter money" from central banks and the strengthening of millennials (entered adult life in the XXI century) and more young generations, including from the point of view of their electoral weight.
Disruption will define a new era, at least initially, for a decade or more.
"But not all clutter is bad," notes Jim Reid. — We must emphasize that the coming of a new era should not be perceived as a reason to refuse the purchase of financial assets, since the new era will bring large-scale interventions (of monetary authorities) and liquidity.
But if the previous era of globalization was associated with record aggregate growth in asset prices, then the "age of disorder" threatens current global assessments, especially in real terms.
Eight main markers of the era of disorder:
— deterioration of relations between the United States and China as the economic weight of Beijing increases;
— a moment of truth for Europe: the Covid-19 pandemic has given new impetus to integration processes, but there is a possibility that Europe will remain in a state of economic stagnation with the prospect of political fragmentation;
— further increase in debts and spread of the "helicopter money" policy as a monetary mainstream;
— probable growth of inflation as a result of fiscal and monetary expansion;
— strengthening of economic inequality in the early stages of the post-covid era, but in the future — a reversal of this trend: states will begin to collect more taxes from the rich;
— tightening of competition between generations: millennials and younger people will catch up with older generations in numbers by 2030, which will allow them to determine the results of democratic elections;
— growing global concern about climate issues;
— a new technological revolution.
