Ukraine cannot defeat Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible with increased Western support. Ukraine will need time until mid-2024 to restore a sufficiently powerful air force. This is the opinion of the retired British General Richard Barrons, who previously commanded the United Kingdom Forces. write Financial Times. According to him, it is unlikely that a large number of territories will be liberated before the onset of this winter.
"Ukraine's current counteroffensive will not displace Russia — although no one expected it. It is also unlikely that the occupation area will be halved before the onset of winter, which could be one of the most optimistic goals," he said.
Burrons emphasized that three more lines of defense of the Russian invaders must be passed before the armed forces can leave the sea, while calling the successes of the soldiers in the south "modest". In his opinion, there are a number of problems that will not allow him to finish what he started this year.
"Ukraine has enough air defense to cover only about a third of the country's territory. The issue of the lack of artillery ammunition was solved only temporarily - due to the supply of cluster shells to the United States. Ukraine will need until mid-2024 to rebuild a sufficiently powerful air force, and is sorely lacking key equipment needed for demining. Fixing all this will postpone the war for at least the next year," says Burrons.
The British general added that now Kyiv must protect its reserves.
"It would be a disaster to allow what's left of the 10th Corps, Ukraine's inactive reserve, to be blown to pieces on Russian defenses because of a rushed deadline," he explained.
Richard Barrons proposed four tactics for the U.S. Army in the near future:
- In the cold, adhere to the principle of "bite and hold", tying Russian soldiers to the front and acting in "short jumps" to reduce casualties.
- Ukraine needs to emphasize counter-battery fighting and the destruction of Russian military potential "faster than it can be replaced, which will make it unable to withstand a stronger future Ukrainian offensive." Including, Kyiv "must use its ingenuity and courage to strike a decisive blow beyond its borders."
- The Russian Black Sea Fleet must be neutralized as the engine of Moscow's devastating cruise missile strikes and as a key obstacle to grain exports. Missile strikes can damage Russian ships faster than they can be replaced. Already by the spring of 2024, the Black Sea Fleet should not play a significant role in this war.
"Ukraine's missile strikes and rapidly expanding naval drone capabilities could damage Russian ships faster than they can be replaced. Until the spring of 2024, the Black Sea Fleet should not play a significant role in this war," the general believes.
- According to Berrons, in the middle of 2024, the west will begin increased supplies of ammunition and this will be a turning point in Kyiv's offensive capabilities. Also, the general believes that Ukraine's victory in the war will cost much more than everyone expected and will take longer.
"The West must now commit to a tougher campaign or condemn Ukraine to a struggle with no prospect of victory," the general said.
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