After withdrawing from the "grain agreement" on July 17, Russia began shelling Ukrainian ports in the south of the country to stop grain exports through the Black Sea. The ports of Odesa and Reni came under fire.
Formally, the Russian Federation links the exit from the negotiations with the attack on the Kerch bridge, which was allegedly carried out by the Ukrainian side. But in fact, the tactics of grain blackmail were consistent, began long before that and hardly depended in any way on the attack on the Crimean bridge.
Russia immediately switched to aggressive tactics of massive missile strikes on grain logistics facilities. As well as threats to attack any ships sailing in the direction of Ukraine. The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, did not even try to create the appearance that these strikes had any military purpose.
The main voiced demands of the Russian Federation regarding the continuation of the "grain agreement":
- restore the access of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT international payment system;
- remove sanctions regarding the insurance of Russian ships and their entry into EU ports;
- unfreeze the assets of Russian companies related to the production of agricultural products and fertilizers;
- to restore the supply of ammonia pipeline Tolyatti - Odesa;
- unlock the supply of spare parts for agricultural machinery.
After the blockade of Ukrainian ports began on July 17, wheat prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange jumped from $615 to $750 per bushel (by 22%). And although in recent days their dynamics have decreased somewhat, they still remain high (over $720 per bushel). Russia, as the main exporter of wheat, directly benefits from this.
The collective West turned out to be unprepared for escalation by Putin.
The question is not so much in the "grain agreement" itself, but in the next steps of the Russian Federation - massive missile strikes on a number of grain logistics facilities in Ukraine and statements about blocking the northern waters of the Black Sea.
If earlier Russia at least tried to justify its missile strikes with military targets, in the case of a missile strike on a grain terminal or grain storage hangars in Odesa, it is impossible to find at least some indirect military factor.
The Ukraine-NATO Council, which was convened at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to try to initiate a response to the actions of the Russian Federation, limited itself to a rather formal condemnation of the actions of the aggressor, and targeted strikes on grain terminals and threats to destroy civilian ships remained unanswered by world leaders.
On July 24, Russia took another step of escalation, carrying out a drone attack on the port of Reni. It was the Danube ports that could become an alternative way for Ukraine to transport at least part of the grain in the event of a complete blockade of the Odesa water area.
Forbes counted, that during the period from July 18 to 24, Russia launched at least 75 missiles and about 100 UAVs in the direction of Odesa region. Their total value is more than $280 million. As a result of missile strikes, more than 460 tons of grain and several grain terminals were destroyed. Dozens of people were injured.
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