In Kazakhstan, a key stage of the political reform carried out by President Kasy-Zhomart Tokaev is coming to an end. Sunday's elections to the Majilis (the lower house of parliament) and Maslikhats (local representative authorities) will be held under new rules that are considered more democratic. The number of candidates is record high. However, experts confidently predict the victory of the ruling party "Amanat", as well as candidates who are only considered independent.
The election will be held exactly four years after Kazakhstan's first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, announced his resignation. On March 19, 2019, he stated that he "did everything he could for the country" and now everything is in the hands of the new generation. Mr. Nazarbayev's successor, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev, having just assumed the post of president, made it clear that a large-scale reboot of the political system was needed to improve the situation in Kazakhstan. Protests in the republic in January 2022 accelerated all processes. In June, as a result of the referendum, serious changes were made to the country's constitution. Early presidential elections were held in December, and the Senate was partially renewed in January. And here is the final point: on March 19, extraordinary elections to the Majilis and Maslikhat will be held.
The current election campaign was significantly different from the previous ones. "There are several features. First, no party has the main bearer of state power — the president. And all parties immediately show their loyalty or non-resistance to him. Secondly, the campaign is taking place after the events of January 2022, which set politicians a task: to institutionalize the struggle with each other so that it does not spill out into the streets under any circumstances," says Kazakh political scientist Gaziz Abishev.
In addition, elections are held according to new rules. There was a partial refusal to vote on party lists.
And if a mixed system was preserved at the regional level (70% from parties and 30% single-mandate members in Majilis; 50/50 in regional maslikhats), then at the level of cities and districts, they completely returned to single-mandate constituencies. The passage barrier for parties has been lowered from 7% to 5%. Self-nominated people appeared. The ballots currently have an "Against All" column.
As a result, according to Kazakhstan's Secretary of State Yerlan Karin, "in less than a year, the conditions for real party competition were created, and citizens had the opportunity to run independently in the parliamentary elections and vote". In his Telegram channel, Mr. Karin provides the following statistics: "A total of 892 candidates were nominated to Majilis on party lists and single-mandate constituencies (an average of nine per mandate)." Unprecedented activity is also noted during elections at other levels.
Interviewed experts note that there are relatively few violations during the current campaign, and those that do exist are not related to the use of an administrative resource.
On Friday, the General Prosecutor's Office of Kazakhstan reported that they had recorded 23 cases (mainly related to illegal pre-election campaigning). "All the facts have been verified, the guilty have been punished administratively," said Zhandos Umiraliyev, deputy head of the department.
"Competition between parties exists, but it is certainly not as principled and merciless as it could be. Strategically, the authorities insured the campaign against going too radical," says Gaziz Abishev. And another political scientist, Daniar Ashimbaev, adds that this time the presidential administration is "demonstratively distancing itself from the electoral process." According to the expert, "Tokayev and his staff will be happy with almost any election scenario, as it is already clear that the majority will be quite constructive candidates, even if they are positioned as independent." Moreover, as Mr. Ashimbaev assures, "the regions received a strict command - not to get carried away by adjusting the voting results."
As for the external evaluations of the campaign, according to the interim report released by the OSCE mission of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), most interlocutors of international observers "welcomed the reforms, which also took into account several previous recommendations of the ODIHR." "At the same time, the priority recommendations regarding the freedom of peaceful assembly, expression of opinions and mass media were ignored," it is noted in the same place.
According to Daniyar Ashimbaev, the reaction of external observers is clear in advance. "If the CIS mission traditionally supports both the course of the election campaign itself and its results, then the OSCE mission proceeds from the fact that the government itself must grow the liberal opposition and give it victory, only in this case there will be no complaints about the election process" political scientist
According to all forecasts, the ruling party "Amanat" (formerly "Nur Otan") will win the elections to the Majilis.
And this is despite the fact that, as Daniyar Ashimbayev noted, this political force "does not use the brand of "presidential party" due to the very high rating of Kasym-Jomart Tokayev." According to a survey conducted on March 3-10 by the "Public Opinion" research institute, 66,7% of voters are ready to vote for "Amanat". Auil, Respublica, Ak Zhol and the People's Party are also likely to pass the 5% threshold. 5,3% of voters, as predicted by sociologists, will vote against everyone.
