Ukraine has been at war for the eighth month. Can our economy withstand the loads and challenges caused by Russia's aggression and how is the Ukrainian business surviving now - the head of the Department of International Economic Relations of ONU named after I.I. Mechnikova, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor Serhiy Yakubovskyi.
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY OF UKRAINE
Today, the government of Ukraine, in my opinion, is doing much better economically than it was a year ago. This is primarily due to constant infusions of 3-4 billion dollars into our economy every month. And it is important that two-thirds of these sums are precisely the aid that does not need to be given.
If we consider the economy of Ukraine and the impact of the war on it, the situation is now better than it could be without the war. And this is due to several factors.
First, we receive stable support from international donors and partners. Nobody needs reforms from us today, which were not always appropriate or effective. And in general, money is spent better now than it was spent before the war, since a significant part of the funds goes to people, primarily to military personnel, and not to state programs with a large share of corruption. Therefore, the current situation in the country and in the economy does not allow the existence of a powerful lobby, as before the war, which was interested in the absence of any reforms, and worked only with the distribution of budget funds among their own, which is not happening now.
It can also be stated that today the influence of the groups of Kolomoisky, Akhmetov and other oligarchs on the government has become much smaller. This is due to a change in the redistribution of budget funds. Most of the money today goes to security and defense, where corruption is much lower or almost non-existent. In the regions, the administrations are controlled by the military, not by groups of businessmen, as before the war, and they seem to me to be more honest and less corrupt.
BIG BUSINESS
The big business of Ukraine suffered a lot because of the war, which in my opinion is a good thing, because a large part of the destroyed enterprises were built in the last century during the Soviet Union, and were technologically outdated and inefficient. I think that after our victory, Ukraine will be able to build a new and modern economy and industry. After all, before the war, our oligarchs and financial and industrial groups did not want to change anything, they received profit from these enterprises, state subsidies - that's why everything suited them. They were not interested in the modernization of production, nor in the development of these enterprises, which they received at one time for free.
Therefore, there is hope that precisely thanks to the military, our state management system will change and that the country will be governed by those who protect it today, and not by those who have been sitting in the Verkhovna Rada or in the government for more than 20 years.
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTREPRENEURS
Small and medium-sized businesses are the most affected part of the economy. In my opinion, in Odesa it was possible to give the opportunity to small businesses to work in the summer period, since they did not receive significant support from the state, and the financial cushion of FOPs is practically absent.
The state could distribute the funds that it receives today in the form of aid between the center and the regions in order to support entrepreneurs on the ground, in the form of grants, contests or something else, but, unfortunately, this is not the case.
In addition, some international organizations that help our country today do not always spend funds effectively and are generally quite closed. For example, those organizations that deal with food aid and hot lunches — everything is delivered from abroad. However, these same products can be bought, packaged or prepared here, giving jobs to our small businesses and supporting our economy.
To summarize, we see that the President has already spoken about the fact that they knew about the attack that was being prepared by Russia, and international partners had a lot of such information, so probably our authorities had time to prepare for war and today our country is financially quite stable . Of course, people's incomes fell, prices rose, but the state fulfills its social obligations and there is no collapse of the system.
WORK OF THE NATIONAL BANK
I believe that the recent resignation of the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Kyryll Shevchenko, may have a negative impact on the country's economy. The National Bank pursued a fairly correct and restrained policy, hryvnia was issued to support social payments, but it was limited, which restrained inflation.
In addition, in recent months, the struggle between the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank continued. The National Bank advocated that the budget be financed by banks and people through the purchase of government bonds and the expansion of their types, as this is not only patriotic, but also economically beneficial. The Ministry of Finance, in turn, advocated the issuance of bonds with a yield lower than the market rate, expecting to fill part of the budget in this way. But according to the results of the last auction of the Ministry of Finance, government bonds were sold for only one billion hryvnias, with the necessary 50-60 billion hryvnias. month. Because neither banks nor citizens bought these bonds, and the National Bank was forced to buy them back at the expense of the hryvnia issue, which led to an increase in the dollar exchange rate and inflation.
The National Bank wanted to issue and sell its bonds in order to compete with the Ministry of Finance to create more favorable market conditions for investors and give them the opportunity to choose. Such an approach would make it possible to curb hryvnia emission and hyperinflation, which is very dangerous for the economy.
As a result, we have a change in the leadership of the National Bank, as the President wants to appoint his own person to this position. But for the financial system, it is better for it to be an independent specialist.
