Global economic growth will slow to 2,4% in 2024 from 2,7% in 2023. Report UN presents gloomy economic forecasts for the near term.
UN experts foresee a long period of tough lending conditions and high borrowing costs. The debt-burdened world economy needs additional investments, they emphasize.
"2024 must be the year we get out of this quagmire. With big and bold investments, we can drive sustainable development and climate action, and put the global economy on a path to faster growth.” said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
In a number of large developed countries, especially the US, growth is forecast to slow in 2024 due to high interest rates, reduced consumer spending and a worsening labor market situation.
Short-term growth prospects for many developing countries, particularly in Latin America and Asia, are also deteriorating due to tightening financial conditions, shrinking fiscal space and sluggish external demand. In particular, economic growth in China is expected to slow to 2024% in 4,7.
Global inflation is forecast to continue to decline and reach 3,9% in 2024 (compared to 5,7% in 2023). However, price pressures remain elevated in many countries, and any further escalation of geopolitical conflicts could lead to a resumption of inflation.
Forecast for Ukraine
For Ukraine, experts predict economic growth of approximately 4%. In Ukraine, the economy showed a slight recovery in 2023 after a previous decline of 29,1%, expanding by about 4,6% and showing some resilience to the effects of the ongoing war, especially on electricity supplies, the report noted.
In November, the IMF raised its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth for 2023 to 4,5% (after the previous range of 1-3%). However, growth is expected to slow to 2024-3% in 4 as the war drags on, and downside risks remain exceptionally high.
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