With his trip to the occupied territories of Luhansk and Kherson regions, Russian President Vladimir Putin pursued several goals. This is stated in a recent review by analysts Institute for the Study of War (ISW). They noted that Putin, during his visit to the occupied Ukrainian territories, portrayed himself as a military leader against the background of the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Analysts emphasized that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi visited the front line in Avdiyivka, so it is possible that the Kremlin deliberately released data about Putin's visit to overshadow Zelenskyi's visit.
In addition, experts believe that Putin's visit was also intended to publicly identify potential scapegoats on the eve of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces.
Analysts also drew attention to the fact that Putin, Kremlin sources and military commanders are increasingly discussing the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces, and it is quite likely that the Kremlin is preparing the Russian information space either for military failures or for repelling the threat of a counteroffensive.
In addition, as noted in the review, the revealing meetings of the Russian president with the leaders of the army confirm the upcoming regular changes in the military command and, possibly, in the immediate circle of the Kremlin. Experts have suggested that Putin is trying to balance Wagner's influence by re-appointing Lapin as the commander of the Luhansk section of the front.
Key findings Institute for the Study of War (ISW):
- During his visit to the occupied Kherson and Luhansk regions, Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to look like a wartime leader in anticipation of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- Putin's visit was probably intended to publicly identify scapegoats for the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- Putin's show meetings with Teplinsky, Makarevich and Lapin probably confirm another change in the military command and, perhaps, in the Kremlin's inner circle.
- Members of the Angry Patriots Club advocate a revolution in Russia if the Kremlin freezes the war or continues peace talks with Ukraine and the West.
- On April 18, the State Duma of Russia approved a series of amendments to the Criminal Code of Russia aimed at stimulating internal self-censorship and repression of the Russian public.
- The central headquarters of Russia's Immortal Regiment announced the cancellation of the annual Victory Day Immortal Regiment march, likely to reduce public discussion of war dead.
- Russian troops launched limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Ukrainian officials reported that Russian troops continue defensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
- The Kremlin continues efforts to integrate proxy formations with regular Russian troops.
- Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian civilians to Russia for medical care and rehabilitation programs.
- Belarus can begin to economically support the Russian-occupied Donetsk region with the help of the patronage system.
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