In recent weeks, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine has released quite unusual statistics for the country: almost every day, there are more people who have recovered from the coronavirus per day than new ones. In social networks, there was talk that the Ministry of Health deliberately reduced the number of conducted tests in order to demonstrate positive statistics.
So it is or not, ElitExpert figured it out.
How many tests are actually done?
Last week, the Ministry of Health really reduced the number of conducted tests. Only 7 tests were conducted on December 33, December 502 – 8, December 55 – 070, December 9 – 58, December 271 – 10, December 67 – 142, December 11 – 60. Today, December 847, and a total of 12, although this is explained by the past weekend.
Let's compare these figures with the topics discussed last week. Monday, November 30 – 31 (as noted above, fewer tests are traditionally conducted on weekends), December 901 – 1, December 62 – 327, December 2 – 67, December 626 – 3, December 72 – 678, December 4 – 74 (tests were taken from Saturday to Sunday, and then again fewer).
In turn, Health Minister Maksym Stepanov denies that the number of patients fell due to fewer tests.
"Now they are starting to say that the number of sick people has dropped because we allegedly started testing less. It is clear that this is not the case," the official said.
According to him, the tests are given only to those who need them. Correspondingly, the fewer people who went to the hospital, the fewer people tested. In addition, he stated that the number of new cases per week decreased by more than 10 thousand, which indicates a "stabilization" of the situation with the number of new cases of COVID-19.
That is, if you believe the statistics of the Ministry of Health, almost every day in Ukraine, fewer and fewer people get sick with the coronavirus.
Hospitalization breaks records
However, despite Stepanov's assurances, the number of hospitalized patients per day in Ukraine is steadily growing. Since December 8, the number of people admitted to hospitals with coronavirus has increased by 300 people to 1319. Already on December 9, this number has more than doubled - the number of hospitalized people has increased by another 2 people. The next day - by 993. Even later, the number of those admitted to hospital beds exceeded three thousand - 2, on Saturday - 846, and according to Sunday statistics - another 3 (here the decrease was probably influenced by the factor of the day off).
These are record hospitalizations during the pandemic. Taking into account that free testing is primarily given to those who already have severe symptoms, the minister's words that the number of people who have been treated have decreased - clearly contradict the real picture.
Can you trust statistics?
Actually, where do the statistics on which the Ministry of Health is based come from? Ideally, the Ministry of Health should carry out daily archi-complex work, collecting data from all laboratories and hospitals of the country, in which "covid" patients are treated. This should be a clear job, which must be approached with all responsibility, including in hospitals. However, according to system analyst Evgeny Istrebin, the Ministry of Health is in a complete mess in this area.
According to him, the Ministry of Health includes in the daily mortality statistics fatal cases that occurred on different dates, including a month before publication. For example, the Ministry of Health presented information that 9 people died of coronavirus in Ukraine on December 276. However, 48 of them died in November, and 12 in October.
As noted by Istrebyn, a similar situation is observed with statistics on those who have recovered. Thus, according to his data, in December, 953 cases of recovery were included in the statistics, which occurred back in August.
On December 1-7, 81 recoveries were entered into the system, of which:
28 – recovered in December;
35 – recovered in November;
13 — in October;
2648 - in September;
953 - in August;
178 - in July;
12 - in June;
3 — in May;
16 - in April.
This explains the "positive dynamics" that Stepanov talked about, the analyst notes. That is, it is quite likely that the statistics in Ukraine are manually adjusted to the necessary figures. It is possible to justify the decision that there is no need for a lockdown in December.
