Kazakhstan appreciates the absence of territorial disputes with its neighbors, the absence of ideological divisions in society and interethnic imbalances. Its geography and economy are such that it will definitely not go according to the Ukrainian scenario, believes the head of the public fund "Peace of Eurasia" (Kazakhstan) Eduard Poletaev.
Meanwhile, recently the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, stated that there are "separate cases" of xenophobia against Russian-speaking citizens of Kazakhstan, which "are largely the product of the use of special information methods from the outside, aimed at cultivating small-town nationalism and discrediting cooperation with Russia."
According to Poletaev, Lavrov's words became a reason for political speculation. Because in Kazakhstan they believe that there is no xenophobia here. Although Lavrov was not talking about systemic manifestations, but about some individual cases.
"It is not clear what the Minister of Foreign Affairs had in mind regarding information methods. Maybe the methods used in Ukrainian domestic politics? Perhaps, we are talking about language patrols, which he did not mention, but these are also one-off isolated cases that are not typical for Kazakhstan. I myself learned about this only from the Russian mass media. And as a Russian-speaking resident of Almaty, I can say that at least we have no language problems," Poletaev noted.
— You are not the first citizen of Kazakhstan to say that he learned about "language patrols" from the Russian mass media. Does this mean that its organizers aimed to deliberately anger Russia?
- I don't know what their goal is. I have no evidence whether it was connected with secret political technologies. So far, I see the initiative of one particular person who left the country after a criminal case was opened against him. It is confirmed that this is not against the Russian language, but support for the status of the state language. Perhaps, this is just an attempt to raise hype on a rather slippery issue.
— Some Kazakh experts did not believe the arguments of the Kazakh government itself that the restrictions on the transit of Kazakh coal through Russia to Ukraine are connected with the congestion of the infrastructure on the Russian side, they saw in this a request from Russia to hurt the interests of Kazakhstan. To what extent are these deliveries significant for Kazakhstan and is it possible to avoid damage to bilateral relations between Moscow and Nur-Sultan in connection with this?
— As far as I know, these arrangements for the supply of coal were of an insignificant nature. Moreover, we ourselves now lack coal reserves for the winter in those regions where gas has not reached. Coal has traveled a lot, not everyone can buy it. But in general, this story did not cause a great resonance in our country, everything about it has already been forgotten. Moreover, in all countries of Central Asia, the problem of lack of electricity has worsened, although winter has not yet begun.
These logistical problems have worsened due to the pandemic. It is not even a problem of Russian-Kazakh relations. There are problems at border crossings. President Tokaev himself said that the Russian Federation forces many trucks to be unloaded when inspecting cargo, so that the border guards are finally convinced that there are no illegals or anything prohibited, and there are very few checkpoints at the borders that allow automatic scanning of everything. Because of this, big traffic jams arise when drivers stand in the cold for several days and the logistics chain is disrupted.
Kazakhstan also has problems with China, which itself has established strict quarantine requirements and is holding back many cargoes sent from China to Kazakhstan. We even feel the lack of Chinese clothing and equipment. But this is a problem all over the world, when containers are delayed and logistics costs grow almost two or three times.
The world was not ready for a pandemic, everyone is suffering, and it is very easy to find people to blame. I think this is a systemic problem. It does not depend so much on bilateral relations with neighbors. In any case, at the highest level, they are raised and tried to solve. For example, our Prime Minister even sent a letter to Beijing with a request to deal with the delay of goods at the border.
— They say that in 2014-2015, the Russians of Kazakhstan began to be treated as a "fifth column", which will definitely help Russia "capture" the northern regions. Have you personally experienced this?
— I felt a certain nervousness, but there were no specific manifestations of something similar. If something is presented to me personally, I will find something to answer. There were definite fears, but the north and east of Kazakhstan are not Donbass. There, the situation is completely different due to ideological reasons.
Ukraine had to think about Crimea and Donbass not in 2014, when the confrontation on the Maidan began. The split of Ukraine, in fact, occurred even after the Orange Revolution of 2004, when the country ideologically split into two camps. Ukrainian politicians have done nothing for the unification of the country. Each educated only their electorate in accordance with their ideological preferences. And when Yanukovych was overthrown, the problem of Crimea and Donbas arose.
In Kazakhstan, the situation is completely different. There is no ideological split here, and demographic distortions have somehow been eliminated. We do not have ethnically homogeneous regions that show separatist sentiments. Yes, there were cases in Ust-Kamenogorsk in the 1990s when a person who did not even live in Kazakhstan tried to organize a coup, but the special services of two countries neutralized him. From the point of view of Kazakhstan, separatist calls were heard during the celebration of the jubilee of the Cossack army, but this was also neutralized. Yes, and there is no one who wants to declare it now. Kazakhstan is a unitary state, this is felt every year.
Finally, Kazakhstan has no territorial problems with its neighbors. On the eve of the 30th anniversary of independence, this is perceived as one of the main achievements of the country, and no one disputes this.
— If suddenly the tense situation in the Donbas turns into a full-fledged war between Russia and Ukraine, what will be Kazakhstan's reaction? Will he propose any Astana format, or will there be other actions?
— No one here wants to intensify the confrontation between Kazakhstan and Ukraine. For example, after 2014, our trade with Ukraine began to decline. Unfortunately, the Soviet Union continues to collapse after 30 years, not all issues have been resolved yet.
I think that Kazakhstan will offer some peace-making formats. This is emphasized in his foreign policy concept for 2020-2030. We understand that the Minsk agreements are not working and no one is going to implement them. But I do not know whether the Astana format will be accepted in Ukraine, since Ukrainian foreign policy is entirely oriented towards Europe and the USA. Here, Ukraine only needs trade and ideological support for its power, but there is no active penetration of Central Asia on its part.
In any case, Kazakhstan will try to make sure that the conflict is resolved, because it lasts almost like two Great Patriotic Wars.
— Regarding Kazakhstan, there are two approaches. Some say that he will follow the path of Ukraine. Others — that this is impossible due to geography and economic ties. Now the situation is generally normal, or do we really need to sound the alarm?
— I don't quite understand what they mean when they say that "Kazakhstan is following the path of Ukraine." Our foreign policy concepts, the structure of the economy, and our geography are completely different. If Ukraine has made a European choice for itself, then Kazakhstan, even if it wants to, will not be able to implement it, because it is located in another region. Moreover, Europe is still mentally outside the borders of the Soviet Union.
Therefore, Kazakhstan will proceed from its interests and objective reality. Our interests are directed to Central Asia, Russia and China. Of course, we do not divide partners into first, second and third tiers, but it is still possible to understand with whom it is more important for Kazakhstan to work, and with whom it is not so important due to objective reasons. We are not going anywhere. We will be here, in Central Asia.
