According to the results of 2023, Russia has spent almost 4 trillion rubles from the National Welfare Fund (the so-called funds for the "dark day"), which since 2004 has been bailing out the Kremlin during crises. Now only 5 trillion remains in its so-called liquid part, writes the Russian publication "Medusa«.
It is noted that initially the system was designed to reduce the economy's dependence on raw material prices. If oil was expensive, the government had to buy currency and save it in the fund. If oil became cheaper, the accumulated currency was allowed to be spent, primarily on pensions. The government set a so-called cut-off price for Urals oil every year: before the war, it was $45.
However, after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the introduction of sanctions on Russian oil, a new budget rule was invented for 2023: it was tied not to the cost of oil, but to the required amount of oil and gas revenues of the budget.
According to journalists, the required volumes were not reached for the entire first half of 2023, so currency from the National Bank of Ukraine was sold. In the summer, the situation changed: prices rose, the ruble weakened, so the authorities were ready to finally replenish the fund. The Ministry of Finance announced that it would start procurement on August 7, but this never happened. In December, the Ministry of Finance sold half a billion euros, 115 billion yuan and 232 tons of gold from the National Bank of Ukraine, and took the 2,9 trillion rubles received to cover the budget deficit.
"This is the maximum allowable amount for 2023," - go to the statistics.
It is also indicated that the FND consists not only of the liquid part, which accounts for accumulations in currency and gold. According to the results of 2023, the total volume of the fund was estimated at 12 trillion rubles. Over the year, the amount decreased by only 12%, but most of it is illiquid. That is, savings must be invested, otherwise they will be devalued by inflation. For this purpose, the state periodically buys shares and bonds of Russian companies.
Oxford Economics expert Tetyana Orlova notes that only liquid investments can be considered as reserves for a rainy day, "the rest is gone."
"Formally, if the same pace of spending is maintained, the liquid part of the fund will be exhausted already in 2025... In 2024, only 1,3 trillion rubles can be taken from the FND to cover the deficit, there will be no further transfers at all." - experts believe.
According to them, support can be provided by a new budget rule. This year, it was decided to return to oil prices at the level of 60 dollars. However, it is currently trading at $65, so there will be additional purchases of the currency. However, Raiffeisen Bank analysts, for example, expect a further reduction in the liquid part of the fund.
According to Alexander Isakov, Bloomberg Economics Russia economist, the liquid part of the FND will remain at the same level if oil costs $73 per barrel. If it drops to 50, then the resources will be enough for a maximum of two years. But the main threat is the rapid transition of funds into an illiquid form.
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