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The impact of the war on the Russian economy is much worse than the Kremlin admits — ISW

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Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War indicate that the Kremlin authorities are continuing their information campaign to hide the extent of the negative impact on the Russian economy due to the war in Ukraine.

"The Kremlin continues to conduct an information campaign, likely aimed at both domestic and international audiences, that aims to conceal the extent of the negative impact of Russia's long-running war against Ukraine on the Russian economy."

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 7 to discuss the state of the Russian economy: “Mishustin said that Russia’s GDP grew by 2024% in 4,1, largely due to “intensive” growth in Russia’s manufacturing industry – likely referring to Russia’s buildup of its defense-industrial base since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.”

Mishustin argued that the main contribution to the growth of Russia's manufacturing industry was made by mechanical engineering, transport engineering, automotive engineering, and the production of computer and electronic equipment.

He also stated that inflation in Russia reached 9,52% in 2024, and Putin declared that as of February 3, 2025, inflation was already 9,9%.

"However, real inflation in Russia is much higher than the official statistics that the Kremlin is willing to publish (some studies indicate that the inflation rate in Russia is closer to 20 percent)."

Mishustin highlighted Russia's low unemployment rate in 2024 at 2,5 percent, but only briefly acknowledged Russia's significant labor shortage, which is the reason for Russia's low unemployment rate. He also noted that Russia's economic growth could be less significant in 2025, as it is crucial to stop inflation and ensure long-term economic growth.

“…it is probably a signal to prepare the Russian population for economic difficulties in 2025. Mishustin and Putin also tried to present the Russian economy as stable in the face of international economic pressure. Mishustin argued that Russia’s fuel and energy complex is adapting and finding new markets.”

Mishustin argued that the Russian economy had “successfully coped” with “unprecedented sanctions pressure” in recent years, and that anti-Russian sanctions were hurting the countries that imposed them more than the sanctions were hurting Russia. Putin also sought to portray the Russian economy as stronger and growing faster than those of the West.

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