The first ceasefire agreement, reached under US mediation during talks in Saudi Arabia, is largely favorable to the Kremlin and does not involve significant concessions from Russia. About this reported the The Times, analyzing the consequences of the talks in Riyadh.
According to the official statement of the White House, the US has agreed with Ukraine and Russia to prohibit the use of force in the Black Sea and guarantee the safety of shipping. However, the publication reminds that active hostilities in this region actually ceased in 2023 after a series of successful attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as a result of which the Russian Black Sea Fleet suffered serious losses and retreated from Crimea.
According to observers, the proposed conditions mostly create favorable conditions for Russian exports. Ukraine already ensures the relative security of its own grain corridor, and Russian attacks on the ports of Odessa and Mykolaiv remain outside the scope of the agreement.
"No restrictions on strikes by Russia are foreseen," — noted Advisor to the President of Ukraine Serhiy Leshchenko, emphasizing that the US did not obtain any specific concessions from the Kremlin in exchange for its return to international trade.
A potential ban on attacks on energy facilities could also have mixed consequences. On the one hand, it would help Ukraine avoid new blackouts. On the other hand, limiting retaliatory strikes on Russian oil refineries would deprive Ukraine of leverage to pressure the aggressor's economy.
Another potential gain for the Kremlin could be the lifting of some restrictions on Russian banks. Moscow is demanding that Rosselkhozbank be reinstated in the SWIFT payment system, which was cut off as part of EU sanctions in 2022.
Although the US did not specify whether SWIFT was specifically being targeted, the White House statement referred to “expanding Russia’s access to financial systems.” If these conditions are met, it could be seen as a major diplomatic victory for Putin and a dangerous precedent for easing pressure on Russia.
"Russia is already manipulating the agreements reached," President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, warning Western allies against placing too much trust in the Kremlin's promises.
There is currently no sign that Russia is truly seeking peace. The Kremlin continues its offensive in eastern Ukraine, and Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov has openly stated that a cessation of hostilities is unlikely anytime soon.
The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that there has been no breakthrough in the negotiations, and a new date for the meeting with the US has not yet been set.
Despite the losses on the battlefield, Moscow does not change its rhetoric. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov once again voiced theses about the "denazification" of Ukraine and compared the West's actions to the invasions of Napoleon and Hitler. And on the very day the negotiations began in Saudi Arabia, Russia launched a missile strike on Sumy - 88 people were injured, including 17 children.
The Times emphasizes: while the US demonstrates a willingness to compromise, the Kremlin is not taking any steps in response and is using the situation to advance its own interests.
The White House has only stated its "commitment" to efforts to return the kidnapped children and captives.
"For the exchange of prisoners and the return of children, one desire is not enough, — Leshchenko remarked. — It is unclear how the US is going to help in this process."
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