There have been moments of acute tension in our time, but rarely has there been such a concentration of hot spots as in 2024, when both the Middle East and Eastern Europe were in bloody wars. Will this year be the year of the start of the Third World War, writes British journalist Roger Boyce in The Times.
It is noted that, as before, there are still too many uncertainties: regarding the consequences of current conflicts, regarding the quality of leadership after the November elections in the USA, regarding the coarsening of political culture and the evil intentions of authoritarian authorities, regarding the probable surge in the spread of nuclear weapons and the collapse of nation states.
"It is fair to say that this is already a year of dangerous life. So much so that the assassination attempt on Donald Trump lost its shock value twice as fast and ceased to be a topic of conversation within a week." - writes the journalist.
It is indicated that together with Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons entered the public discussion.
"The West dismissed these comments as frivolous, but even talk of exchanging nuclear strikes raised the temperature. Nuclear threats are becoming the norm. Kim Jong Un has threatened the US and South Korea that they will pay a "terrible price" if they try to thwart his nuclear program. The likely outcome: If North Korea shows signs of invading the South, the US will remind Kim and his patrons in Beijing that the South Koreans will be protected by the US nuclear umbrella. If anything, that was the tone of the Biden administration. It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration takes a similar view." - says the publication.
The world has changed since the 1960s, becoming more complex and dangerous, the journalist states.
"In 2002, Iranian President Rafsanjani called Israel a 'one-bomb' country, implying that a single Iranian nuclear bomb would be enough to destroy the 'Zionist establishment.' A new reformist president is now in power and has just been humiliated by the removal of Ismail Haniya in Tehran and Fouad Shukr in Beirut. Israel's message is that Iran can no longer protect its proxy leaders… This is the script used in the Middle East. This is eye-for-an-eye etiquette, the purpose of which is to control movement up the escalation ladder. But this only works as long as Iran does not have a nuclear bomb. Then the stakes become higher." - writes The Times.
It is noted that currently the "railings" of international relations established in the 1960s are holding, but the collective memory of how close the world came to disaster in that decade is fading, which can have dire consequences for everyone.
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