If a full-scale war in Ukraine continues until June 10, 2026, it will last longer than World War I. The fighting has reached a stalemate, but Russia’s high command continues to waste soldiers’ lives in one doomed attack after another.
As the deputy editor writes: The Economist, Edward Carr writes in his article that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely has no clear plan for a war against Ukraine. He believes that in the future, the Kremlin leader will have to face the sad consequences of his actions.
Putin does not realize the full scale of the problems
According to Carr, the root of Putin’s problem is that he has never been able to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield. His ambitious summer offensive in 2025 ended in complete failure.
The journalist noted that Russia's tactic is to send small groups of soldiers into a so-called "meat grinder." Only some soldiers manage to break through, while everyone else has to die.
Carr stressed that in the year to mid-October, Russian casualties had risen by almost 60%, to between 984,000 and 1,438,000. He added that the death toll now stood at between 190,000 and 480,000.
The journalist calculated that for every Ukrainian there are approximately five dead Russian soldiers. Moreover, he recalled that over the summer the occupiers failed to capture a single major city in Ukraine.
Carr acknowledged that the Russians are making steady progress. But he said it will take about five more years to fully occupy the four regions Putin wants to capture. He predicted that total Russian casualties could reach nearly 4 million in the near future if Russians continue to die at the current rate.
The lack of progress explains why Putin is also targeting Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, the journalist believes. According to him, the Kremlin leader hopes to make part of Ukraine uninhabitable and undermine the morale of the population.
Trump did not help Putin advance in Ukraine
Carr noted that Putin also hoped that US President Donald Trump would tip the scales in his favor. He acknowledged that the leader of Washington could indeed impose an unfavorable peace on Ukraine by ending American support, including in the areas of intelligence and air defense. Moreover, in early 2025, it could briefly seem that Trump was indeed leaning much more towards Putin's position.
Now, Europe is paying for weapons for Ukraine, which is a response to Trump's demand for allies. According to the journalist, the US president understood that the decision to abandon Ukraine in the fight against Russia would destroy his aspirations to become a statesman awarded the Nobel Prize. In addition, in October he even imposed sanctions against two Russian oil companies - Lukoil and Rosneft.
Putin has no intention of ending the war against Ukraine
Carr predicts that Putin will continue the war against Ukraine in 2026. He noted that the Kremlin leader probably believes that time is on his side. However, the experience of Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq shows that leaders cling to any hope of change.
The journalist believes that Putin is hoping that his generals will find a new way to wage war until Ukraine exhausts its resources, until the current Ukrainian government collapses, or until Trump or Europe loses patience.
But Carr is convinced that if none of this happens, Putin will face a terrible reckoning. According to him, once Russians realize that the Kremlin leader has futilely started a war against Ukraine, Putin may accept defeat abroad and impose terror at home, or escalate even further.
Putin wants to use the possible capture of Pokrovsk to put pressure on the West.
Earlier, military commentator Denis Popovych said that if Pokrovsk is captured, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may begin to put pressure on the West with information. In such a case, the Kremlin leader will probably promote the thesis that aid to Ukraine will not stop the Russian offensive.
According to Popovych, it cannot be said that the situation in Pokrovsk has stabilized, because the enemy is still trying to advance. He recalled that the Russian occupiers are within the borders of Pokrovsk and almost the entire city is currently in a "gray zone."
