Russia is producing ammunition "at an extraordinary speed." Journalists have learned the annual production volumes of Iskander and Kh-101 missiles. This is reported by The Economist,.
Citing an assessment by Ukraine and a report by the Royal Joint Institute for Defense Research, the publication says that Russia is producing ammunition "at an extraordinary rate" - more than 1400 Iskander ballistic missiles per year, as well as 500 Kh-101 cruise missiles per year.
At the same time, as journalists note, in other industries the current production rates are unsustainable.
"Only 10-15% of the 1500-2000 tanks and 3 other armored combat vehicles produced annually are new," — is specified in the article with reference to a report by the Royal Joint Institute for Defence Studies.
The remaining resources, which are being recovered from old Soviet stocks, could be exhausted by 2026 if the current rate of losses continues. In particular, Russian armored vehicle production, according to The Economist, could peak this year.
Russia's threat to NATO countries
The publication cites these figures in the context of assessing a possible Russian attack on NATO countries. The publication writes that as long as the war in Ukraine continues, Russia will not have free ground forces to pose a serious threat to NATO.
"But even if a ceasefire agreement is signed, it will be difficult for Russia to divert a large number of troops, because this could allow Ukraine to regain territory," — the article says, citing analysts' opinions.
Therefore, the authors continue, Russia will have to create new forces. Western intelligence agencies have carefully studied how long this might take, and their conclusions vary widely. A same:
- The US says Russia will rebuild its army “within the next decade”;
- Norwegian intelligence believes it will take five to ten years "at the earliest";
- Ukraine's estimates suggest five to seven;
- German - from five to eight;
- Estonian spies seem to be the least optimistic, offering Russia a three- to five-year period to create new formations, depending on the course of the war, the Russian economy, and the continuation of sanctions.
At the same time, these terms depend on many factors, including the production of equipment and weapons.
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