Russian road construction companies could face massive bankruptcies in 2025 due to a drop in orders and an increase in the central bank's key rate to 21%. This is stated in the analytical review of the National Association of Infrastructure Companies (NAIC), write RBC.
The organization notes that starting from 2024, there is a trend towards a significant decrease in the volume of road construction work, which will become "especially sharp" in 2025 after the completion of sections of the M-4 and M-12 highways.
In particular, contracts for the construction of objects in the amount of 5 billion rubles. and above has already been carried over to the following years.
As a result, the combined revenue of companies at the end of the current year will fall by 42,9% compared to 2022, and the balance of contracted work from 2024 to 2027 will decrease from 54,9 to 10,2%.
At the same time, companies are hit by an increase in costs for construction materials, fuel, and employee salaries (since the beginning of 2023, they have increased by 45,1%), as well as an increase in the debt burden due to an increase in the key rate and an increase in the price of leasing contracts (by 54,6, 2,6%). All this has already led to a drop in profitability to 3,3-XNUMX%.
"The absence of socially significant projects for the construction, reconstruction, capital repair of roads and bridges, which form the country's only supporting transport network, the shift of funding to objects that are already being implemented for one to three years, in combination with a high key rate and an increase in costs will lead to to the degradation of the industry and negative consequences for the economy in general." - emphasized in NAIC.
In particular, among the negative consequences for the industry, the association named the loss of accumulated competencies, personnel, equipment and disbandment of capacities by construction companies. This, in turn, will lead to an increase in social tensions and the impossibility of prompt mobilization of the industry in the future.
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