Over the past few days, the mass media have heard many statements from the state leadership about possible dates for the end of the war, which have left many in a dead end. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stated that one should be morally prepared for a long war, and the head of the State Administration of the Ministry of Defense Kyrylo Budanov, in turn, said that the war will not be long.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, military and political columnist of the "Information Resistance" group, in his blog, analyzed these statements and presented his analysis of the possible course of the war and its end.
Oleksandr Kovalenko: To begin with, I would like to emphasize that Ukraine has been living in a state of permanent war for hundreds of years. And, unfortunately, we did not always win, as a result of which there were the most difficult consequences for our nation.
For example, Holodomor 1932–1933. According to various estimates, from 4 to 10 million people died of hunger at that time. The systematic extermination of the nation, which fifteen years ago could not resist the numerically superior enemy, whose country was captured by him. A tragedy that could not have happened... But more on that later.
What is a long war? What is a short war? Was World War II long or short? Was the Hundred Years' War short or long?
In fact, the whole point is in the interpretation and perception of a civilian and a military person.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, civil person, politician. Yes, he is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of a warring country, but still a politician who is unlikely to be able to distinguish the T-64B1M from the T-80BVM, or explain how the first line of the second line of defense differs from the second.
In turn, Kirilo Budanov military and operates with the perception of terms precisely from this position and experience.
For example, Western journalists criticized our offensive from the first days, not understanding how it could be that the Leopard 2 blew up on mines and burned, and why the offensive was so long, two weeks passed, and the Ukrainian troops were not yet in Mariupol?
In turn, if someone thinks that Ukraine's offensive is slow, I would like to point out that by the standards of defense line breakthroughs, this is not the case.
The Russian occupiers built three lines of defense, classical, let's say. Classical, according to the construction, according to Soviet textbooks and not only. For example, even the influence of Lieutenant General Vasyl Novytskyi's "Fortified Border Lines" from 1915 can be seen.
But all these lines of defense are extremely hypertrophied in detail. For example, in the density of mining, which exceeds the norms by 5 and even, in some areas, by 10 times.
In turn, the Armed Forces broke through the first line of defense, classic in concept, but unique due to the hypertrophied saturation of the barrier, according to the classic average advance in the support lane - 100-200 meters per day. And this, I should note, is a standard indicator for breaking through the first line of defense, but a record.
And now, the question is, how does such an attack appear to a civilian? Slow, agree. And what about a military man who understands the essence of the issue? Standard, successful and even more.
And in general, after the war. There is no inconsistency of opinion, there is a different approach to the evaluation of time intervals.
Is a year long or not? Two more years of war, are you ready for it? Morally? Of course, you can drop everything halfway, sit down at the negotiating table and freeze what will result in another genocide in 5 or 10 years. Although the genocide is already happening, and the one who refuses to recognize it goes down in history in all its hideous beauty. But…
But you can't stop now and then, until the victorious end. After all, we are being watched not only by those who died from February 24, 2022... 2014... who believed in victory and went into battle with it in mind, but also those who died by the millions in 1932-1933 and whom no one could protect. Should not happen again.
We are fighting an enemy that is still superior to us. And you have to fight carefully and thoughtfully. Deadlines? They can be evaluated in different ways. Deeply emotional, or dry and rational, it all depends on what purpose such an assessment serves. And we have one goal - victory.
To always be aware of the most important things, read us at Telegram
