Western experts believe that if Ukraine wins a war with Russia, it will be in the temporarily occupied Crimea. Currently, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are carrying out successful strikes against Russian weapons on the peninsula and attacking the Crimean Bridge to disrupt the logistics of the occupiers. Informs Business Insider.
Frederik Mertens, an analyst at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, believes that by targeting the peninsula, especially Russian ground-based air defense systems, Ukraine is "preparing the ground" for future airstrikes after the arrival of F-16 fighter jets.
"Crimea is vulnerable. The Russians have relatively limited room for maneuver on the peninsula. And Putin has something to lose both politically and militarily. Therefore, if a limited number of fighters can have a real impact, then it is here and over the Black Sea, which becomes fully accessible after the air defense problem in Crimea is solved."
Earlier, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, reported that Russia had relocated its most advanced S-500 air defense system to the peninsula.
At the same time, Maria Snehova, a senior researcher at the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that "Russia cannot afford to lose Crimea," because it would give Ukraine the opportunity to use "the threat of Crimea's status as a bargaining chip in future negotiations."
Elina Beketova, an expert on democracy at the Center for the Analysis of European Politics, is convinced that if Ukraine can regain control of the Black Sea and return the peninsula - or simply put enough pressure on these territories to threaten Putin - then "it will mean the end of the war."
The publication reminds that at the beginning of the year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi made it clear that the battle for Crimea and the Black Sea will play a central role in the coming months.
Olha Khvostunova, a researcher at the Eurasian program of the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies, is convinced that Russia's defeat in Crimea would be "not just a defeat, but a humiliation."
Journalists recalled that in the past few weeks, Ukraine has carried out a series of successful attacks on the region, destroying several Russian air defense batteries and striking the Belbek airfield near Sevastopol.
Beketova believes that the Ukrainian attacks on the peninsula "became successful thanks to careful preparation and systematic work, better capabilities of the defense forces, satellite and aerial reconnaissance provided to Ukraine by NATO allies."
At the same time, the publication emphasizes that Ukraine, which lost its traditional navy during the annexation of Crimea, is attacking Russia's Black Sea Fleet with the help of naval drones with great success.
These attacks have allowed Ukraine to restore supplies of grain via the Black Sea, which is vital to its economy, and forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet to hide its ships away from Sevastopol in Crimea.
The publication also writes that the destruction of the illegal Crimean bridge, which connects the Russian mainland with the eastern coast of Crimea, would be "a strategic and symbolic victory for Ukraine and a serious blow to Putin."
"Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia, Ukraine has already struck the bridge twice, but so far has not been able to destroy it. Earlier this year, representatives of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine informed the Guardian that Ukraine will blow up the bridge for the third time before the end of the year. According to them, its destruction is "inevitable". There are already signs that Russia also fears that Ukraine may launch another attack on the bridge." - writes Business Insider.
In particular, the UK Ministry of Defense reported last week that Russia had installed 8 barges on the southern side of the bridge to reduce "angles of approach for Ukrainian unmanned vehicles".
In addition, Russia has begun to take measures to reduce its dependence on the Crimean bridge - in particular, the occupiers are building a railway from Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia to Crimea.
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