Russia's coercion for peace can be based on three things. Moscow must see that they do not want to communicate with it, that it has financial constraints, defeats on the battlefield, a war on its own territory and no friends. Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said this in an interview Channel 24.
"Forcing Russia to peace can be based on three things. The world should stop trading with Russia. Just stop. At the very least, impose much tougher sanctions; introduce secondary sanctions against countries that are neutral and are currently profiting from Russia. Stop transferring technologies to circumvent sanctions.” - said the adviser to the head of the OP.
He added that the key is for other countries to finally remove their companies from the Russian market.
According to Podoliak, the instrument of coercion is when "the oligarchs are surrounded by Putin, when his direct incomes will drop significantly, when they will not be able to be realized at all, and when they will be limited in the ability to move their capital somewhere." This will greatly affect intra-elite conflicts in the Russian Federation. And the lack of money in the federal budget will accelerate the social gap in the country.
"People will see, firstly, a war on their territory, and secondly, that there is nothing in their pockets and that the only way to earn money is to sign a contract for a million federal rubles. (…) This is the only way to get money, but this money will be for payments, as is customary in Russia - after death to your grandchildren. All this will affect social relations. So: internal elite conflict, social conflict - and this is coercion. Through the economy, through properly constructed economic pressure, which does not exist today," - explained the adviser to the OP chairman.
He called the Kursk operation the second component of forcing Russia to make peace. It demonstrated that in the absence of a deficit, Ukraine conducts much more effective countermeasures and destroys much more enemy equipment.
Podolyak noted that it is politically and ideologically clear that Russia can and wants to fight in the world. But the aggressor country has no "red lines" on its territory. Now it became clear to her how much resource is needed "to scale all this".
"As soon as scaling begins, very panicky moods appear, do you understand how many people begin to flee from the front line? They all return to Russia and ask certain questions. And all this, again, adds to social conflicts that have already been provoked." - said the adviser to the head of the OP.
Regarding the third instrument of influence on the Russian Federation, Podolyak drew attention to China, India, Brazil and other countries of the Global South. He noted that these states are interested in cooperation not only with Russia to obtain cheap energy carriers. They are much more interested in cooperation with the high-tech markets of the EU and North America in order to obtain technology, improve the quality of life, and have access to global financial markets.
"These are grounds for active diplomatic communication. Not some cautious one, they say, whether you will support Russia or not. Other issues should be discussed. Do you want to raise the standard of living in your countries? Do you want access to breakthrough technology? Do you want to have access to the free movement of capital? These are voluminous discussions." - said the adviser to the head of the OP.
In his opinion, the countries of the Global South would give positive answers to these questions, but would like to buy "some more energy carriers from Russia." Podoliak indicated that this could be allowed under certain restrictions and with certain price ceilings.
"In general, you can buy anything you want in Russia, but you cannot sell anything there. This is also pressure on Russia. This is coercion," he added.
"When Russia really sees that they don't want to communicate with it here, it has financial restrictions, it has defeats on the battlefield, it's a war on its own territory, and its key friend is some representative of Hamas or Hezbollah." It’s a completely different configuration, right?” – the advisor of the OP chairman drew attention.
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