The military command of the aggressor country Russia sets extremely unrealistic deadlines that do not correspond to the real combat capabilities of its army. At the same time, the Kremlin maintains territorial ambitions beyond the five Ukrainian regions whose territories are already occupied. This was reported by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (HEI).
Analysts recall the recent statement by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that Russia's military plans for 2025-2027 also include the capture of the remaining Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the occupiers, an advance in Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, as well as an advance inland and occupation of the entire Odessa region. However, the specific terms of the Russian command for the implementation of these goals within a three-year period are unclear, ISW adds.
"Russia's plans to continue attacks in southern Ukraine demonstrate the Kremlin's disinterest in freezing the front line in Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. Russia's targets in Odessa region demonstrate that the Kremlin retains territorial ambitions beyond the five illegally annexed Ukrainian regions," — says the report of American experts.
At the same time, ISW continues to assess that the occupiers are unlikely to be able to advance to Odessa, let alone capture the entire region.
Analysts emphasize that the military command of the Russian Federation constantly sets "unrealistic deadlines" that their troops do not meet, starting with an attempt to capture Kyiv in a few days in February 2022. ISW also emphasizes that the invaders also set deadlines for capturing the entire Donbas, but failed each time.
“Moscow has spent significant resources and manpower trying to fulfill the command’s objectives, but has failed to make significant progress over the past four years,” — the report says.
The Institute also notes that even Russian military bloggers "often complained about the unrealistic and broad territorial goals of the military command, which lead to heavy losses of troops in costly attacks."
"The Russian military command did not adjust its demands, despite setbacks and justified complaints. Russian President Vladimir Putin even tried to present these US goals not only as possible, but also as inevitable, in order to influence Washington's opinion on the alleged necessity of Ukraine's surrender," — summarizes the Institute for the Study of War.
