US Vice President Kamala Harris has unexpectedly pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump by three percentage points in Iowa, hinting that the United States could be in for a surprise on election night, a poll shows Des Moines Register/Mediacom.
According to a new poll conducted Oct. 28-31 of 808 likely voters in Iowa, Harris leads Trump by 20 percentage points among women, and among men she has cut her lead in half since September. The poll shows Harris leading by a margin of 47% to 44% among likely voters.
In the latest poll, conducted in September, Trump led Harris in Iowa by four percentage points. A June poll in Iowa showed Trump ahead of President Joe Biden, then considered the presumptive Democratic nominee, by 18 points.
Iowa used to be considered a safe state for Republicans. Trump won Iowa by more than 9 percentage points in 2016 and 8 in 2020.
Iowa was not included in the list of so-called "swing" states, which are of key importance in the election. The results came as Trump and Harris focused their attention almost exclusively on seven swing states.
Neither candidate has campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primary, and neither campaign has established a ground presence in the state.
The Trump campaign released a statement from its chief pollster and chief data consultant calling the Des Moines Register poll a "clear bias" and saying the Emerson College poll, also released Saturday, more accurately reflects the state of the Iowa electorate.
An Emerson College/RealClearDefense poll of a similar number of likely voters on Nov. 1-2 showed a stark contrast, with Trump ahead of Harris by 10 points. This poll also has a margin of error of 3,4 percentage points.
Nationally, Harris and Trump are neck and neck in the polls. Whoever wins Iowa will get six Electoral College votes.
Election Day in the USA is Tuesday, November 5. Early voting continues.
Thank you for being with us! Monobank for the support of the ElitExpert editorial office.
