Yesterday, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, announced a partial mobilization, but the partial mobilization can become massive at any moment, experts warn.
300 is more than one percent of the total number of reservists announced by Shoigu – 25 million people. Minister Shoigu's later statement was clarified by Andrii Kartapolov, head of the State Duma defense commission. According to him, the ranks of military personnel can also be filled by graduates of military departments.
Although Putin and Shoigu deny the possibility of sending conscript soldiers to the front, such a decision is still possible, says the head of the human rights group "Citizen. Army. Pravo" and ex-member of the Council on Human Rights under the President of the Russian Federation (HRC) Serhiy Kryvenko: "There is a single restriction that prohibits sending abroad and to the combat zone - if there is no four months of service, - explains the expert - After four months of training already can send." He notes that "with the inclusion of the territories of southeastern Ukraine into Russia, they will be able to send any military personnel there without any problems."
The Russian Federation was preparing for mobilization all summer
It does not matter what form of mobilization is announced - partial or general, adds Kryvenko. "The main thing is to understand that mobilization has been announced," he says. - Partial can instantly turn into general. Today, Shoigu announced the figure of 300, but it is not in the decree, so it can be increased or decreased in any direction."
The Russian authorities imperceptibly and in advance prepared for mobilization, says the founder of the "Conscript School" organization Oleksiy Tabalov. "All summer, we observed an active campaign to call reservists to military meetings," says the human rights defender. "It was motivated by the fact that military equipment needs to be restored and repaired, but today they are in the front lines for mobilization."
Putin wants negotiations
It was not easy for Putin to decide on the mobilization, because of the potential risks, but he nevertheless agreed to raise the stakes in order to "impress Ukraine with his determination and readiness for escalation," suggested political scientist Abbas Gallyamov. "What choice does he have? Losing the war is a political collapse, after which he will not be able to continue being the president, - explains Gallyamov. - Ukrainians do not want to sit down at the negotiating table. This is a problem for him today."
At the same time, military personnel mobilized in the Russian Federation are unlikely to help the Russian army militarily, Dmytro Gudkov, a politician in solidarity with Galliamov: "The situation is very serious and speaks of the inadequacy of Putin's regime," he believes. — Taking into account the weapons supplied to Ukraine, we are talking about an additional set of cannon fodder. This is such a new funeral campaign."
In Russia, on the evening of September 21, protest actions announced by the Vesna youth movement began. In the main squares of many Russian cities, small groups of protesters gather and are dispersed by the police almost immediately. Denis Volkov, a sociologist from the Levada Center, is sure that the protests in the Russian Federation have no chance of becoming mass.
"Mass protest in Russia is now impossible. This is from the realm of fiction, - said Denys Volkov. - The authorities do not approve of protests, and an uncoordinated protest is illegal. The most common attitude of Russians towards protests is that it will not affect anything anyway. Although individual manifestations cannot be ruled out."
