Ukraine experienced the most difficult winter in its history, but the future promises to be no less difficult. The key risk is the same: energy facilities remain priority targets for Russian missile and drone strikes, the probability of which is extremely high. However, even without them, the power system suffers from problems. About this reports the Economic truth
Preparation for the autumn-winter period
As part of preparations for the next autumn-winter period (OZP), the energy sector, the government and the military focused on three key areas.
Pershiy - completion of planned and restorative repairs of power plants and equipment necessary for the transmission of generated electricity. Currently, the NPP is undergoing planned repairs, due to which the energy system occasionally has a deficit, which can be covered thanks to imports.
Repairs and replacement of fuel at the nuclear power plant must be completed before the start of the OZP. In this direction, everything is going according to plan. Not least due to the fact that nuclear power plants are almost the only energy facilities that have escaped Russian shelling.
Things are worse at TPPs and HPPs. According to Prime Minister Denys Shmygal, there is not a single TPP or HPP in Ukraine that was not attacked by enemies in winter. The executive director of DTEK, Dmytro Saharuk, said that the company carries out planned repairs and restoration of damaged blocks of thermal power plants.
"We are doing current repairs for the fifth month in a row: seven blocks have been done, and the same number are in the process. In 2023, we plan to bring 27 TPP units into operation. It is also necessary to restore 1,4 GW of generating capacity," he said. The state company "Ukrenergo" also reports on restoration and planned works.
However, experts doubt that it will be possible to restore at least half of the capacities before the start of the heating season. There are objective reasons for this.
"The energy part is being prepared, a lot of work is being done to restore both high-voltage networks and generation. However, it will not be possible to do everything. No matter how hard we try, even if we have money, the terms of manufacturing and delivery of the equipment will not allow us to make it to the new heating season.
The high-voltage network will be restored by a maximum of 30-40% relative to its normal state. Work is being carried out on generation, but with extremely limited resources, so there will definitely be problems with coal-fired generation," Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, believes.
Second - creation of energy infrastructure protection systems against Russian attacks and improvement of air defense (air defense). Interlocutors of the EP in the government emphasize that work continues in both directions. No details.
Third - accumulation of sufficient volumes of fuel to pass through the winter. "There are currently 1,5 million tons of coal and 10,4 billion cubic meters of gas in storage. By the beginning of the heating season, it is planned to reach 1,8 million tons of coal and 14,7 billion cubic meters of gas," Shmyhal said.
"I don't see any problems with fuel. The level of coal consumption is now low. Considering the current level of gas production, we should have enough resources from our own production, so I don't expect any problems here," says Kharchenko. The same forecasts were voiced by representatives of the government and energy companies interviewed by the EP.
Why the next winter will be worse than the previous one
Experts agree that the key risk is attacks on infrastructure. "The probability of new attacks on the energy sector is extremely high, and then emergency situations and blackouts are inevitable. However, it is currently impossible to accurately assess or predict what the situation will be," the interlocutor of the EP in the government shares.
"The conditions in which we will start this winter will be much worse than those that were at the beginning of last winter. We finished the last RAM when 75% of the thermal generation was destroyed or damaged. This did not happen in 2022," Saharuk explained.
Energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev agrees with him: "Why do they say that it could be worse than last year? Due to the lack of a reserve of generating capacity. Our balance is not strong enough now."
According to Andrii Gerus, the head of the parliamentary committee on energy and housing and communal services, the biggest problem now is the lack of safety margin in Ukrenergo's networks, namely at the company's substations.
"We are dependent on large generating facilities that provide electricity through large substations. Accordingly, the margin of safety at those substations is of critical importance, and now it is insufficient," the MP believes.
Are outages possible in winter?
Even in the absence of new shelling, such a scenario is likely. "Calculations and various scenarios are being simulated now. It is difficult to predict which of them will be realized. Consumption increases even in the summer, and at the peak in winter it will be even higher.
If Zaporizhzhia NPP is not in the system, we will have quite significant problems with generation. In my personal opinion, we will not be able to cover the size of this deficit with imports. We simply will not delay so much import. Therefore, there may well be restrictions in winter," Kharchenko believes.
Sakharuk emphasizes that electricity consumption will increase during the autumn-winter period. "Ukraine will consume more and there may be a much larger deficit that cannot be covered by imports. What volume will it be? The situation will show, because the air temperature will have a strong influence.
For example, every minus five degrees in Kyiv is plus 100 MW of consumption. The colder it will be, the greater the deficit will be. When there is a shortage of imports, the system will have to be balanced with outages," says the executive director of DTEK.
However, there is also a positive point: the year 2022 gave the energy industry valuable experience. Now, the failure of some system is not a surprise or a disaster. Companies understand well how to respond to any situation.
Work was carried out to ensure the self-sufficiency of a number of critical infrastructure facilities. There are many more stand-alone power plants that can operate in the event of power outages.
"There will be system crashes. They will be caused by shelling, increased load in networks, emergency shutdowns of power units. However, we are not talking about an all-Ukrainian blackout," Ryabtsev said.
What should the population prepare for
If we put together all the advice of the interlocutors of the European Parliament regarding the OZP, it will be as follows: it is worth preparing for the worst scenario, even if it does not materialize.
“If you have a generator, service it and stock up on fuel. The same applies to powerful power banks. Be prepared to need these things. The probability of such a scenario is very high," warns Kharchenko.
Sakharuk also advises not to get rid of the generator. "Now is the time for preparation and the prices are not as high as last fall. It is worth paying attention to the insulation of buildings. It is necessary to prepare calmly and without panic," says the executive director of DTEK.
According to Ryabtsev, it is necessary to ensure autonomous energy supply of houses, farms and small enterprises in case of accidents.
"Equipment is available and prices are much lower than they were at the peak of demand. It is better to invest now than to sit without electricity and fuel later. Ukrainians need to understand: until the end of the war, problems with electricity will not disappear. There will be difficulties even after it ends, so it's better to be ready for that," Ryabtsev concluded.
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