Without US military assistance, Ukraine has enough weapons to continue fighting at the current pace until the summer of 2025, but beyond that, ammunition shortages and loss of access to modern weapons may occur. About this reported the The Wall Street Journal, citing Western officials and military analysts.
"The arms deliveries that the Biden administration has sent or ordered in recent months should allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to maintain defense until the middle of the year," notes former senior Pentagon official Celeste Wallander.
At the same time, Ukrainian experts believe that the country can hold out for up to a year, although this will mean serious losses and the possible loss of some territories.
Due to the possible reduction in American supplies, European leaders are already considering alternative scenarios. The continent supplies Ukraine with artillery, medium-range air defense systems, and cruise missiles, but, as analysts note, will not be able to fully compensate for the loss of American weapons systems.
“While Europe could match the US in terms of costs, it cannot provide the full range of systems needed,” said Swedish Defense University expert Oscar Jonsson.
The biggest problem may be the lack of American air defense systems. Only the United States produces Patriot complexes, which are capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. Ukraine may also lose ATACMS tactical missiles, which have a range of up to 460 km and allow strikes on the rear positions of the occupiers. Another challenge is the possible restriction of access to Starlink satellite communications, which is key for commanding troops on the front line.
"The US may stop sending aid, but will allow Europe to buy American weapons for Ukraine," – says Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network analytical center.
What will be given?
Ukraine continues to increase its own arms production and actively cooperates with European partners to support arms supplies. At the same time, the issue of further US military assistance remains open and will depend on political decisions in Washington.
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