Asteroid 2024 YR4, which is 100 meters in diameter, could collide with Earth on December 22, 2032 - experts say that the probability of such a collision has increased to 2,3%, which is 1% more than scientists previously predicted, write The Guardian.
So, until recently, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimated the probability of an asteroid colliding with our planet at 1,3%. Simply put, the probability that it would safely fly past our planet was almost 99%.
According to NASA's Near-Earth Object Research Center, the probability of a collision between Earth and an asteroid in 2032 is 2,3% - that's a one in 43 chance.
Despite the fact that the asteroid is considered potentially dangerous (it received a rating of 3 on the Turin collision hazard scale, where 0 means no risk and 10 means the threat of destruction of civilization), astronomers urge people not to panic.
As ESA experts explain, the probability that 2024 YR4 will ever collide with the planet will drop to almost zero once updated data on its speed and flight path are received in the coming weeks and months.
NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office agreed with this opinion.
"In the past, there have been several objects that were placed on the risk list and then removed from it due to new data." "New observations may lead to this asteroid being reclassified to Category Zero as more data becomes available." – notes researcher Molly Wasser.
Recall that asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected by an automated telescope in Chile - this happened at the end of December 2024.
The asteroid in question could destroy a large city if it collided with Earth. Scientists estimate that the impact could release about 8 megatons of energy, which is 500 times more than the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan.
The asteroid will remain available for observation for several months, allowing scientists to conduct additional studies and calculate its orbit with high accuracy.
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