In the publication "Ukrainian Pravda» there was a long interview with the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense, Kyryll Budanov. When the main part of the conversation was recorded, it was not yet known that a brutal war would take place in Israel. In order to ask additional questions about the events in the Middle East, UP journalists came to GUR again.
They talked about how the war in Israel will affect Ukraine, what will happen next with military aid to our country, about the urgent need for air defense for the winter period. It was also about the current situation at the front, how it was possible to avoid a terrorist attack on the ZNPP and how long the Russian Federation has resources for a war with Ukraine.
"A significant number of Ukrainians are in Israel and several hundred people in the Gaza Strip - this is a big problem"
- In your opinion, what is happening in Israel now?
- Israel's operation to regain control over its territories, counter-terrorist operation to release captured hostages and repulse terrorist attack is ongoing.
The situation is dangerous because, in addition to the problems in the southwest of the country, there is also a problem in the north of Israel from the Hezbollah group. It still carries out provocative shelling, to which the Israeli armed forces respond with artillery fire.
At the moment, the situation is, let's say, under control for everyone: both for Hezbollah and for Israel. And what will happen next - we'll see.
- After the start of the war in Israel, the world media came out with the headlines "Mossad slept through the attack by Hamas." How did it happen that the Israeli special services, about which books are written and films are made, missed the preparation of such a large attack?
- Listen, it is quite difficult to understand the enemy's intentions in time and give a clear answer that everything will start now.
I would refrain from condemning the Israeli intelligence agencies. Let's wait until it's all over and maybe we'll learn some facts we didn't know.
- Is there a Russian trace in this story?
- So. First of all, we clearly know that trophy weapons from Ukraine were still transferred by the Russians to the Hamas group. It is mostly infantry weapons.
There is some information that something was going to Hezbollah, but we don't know for sure at this point.
Everyone could see the video on social networks - a completely, let's say, natural for our region and completely unnatural for the Middle East tactic, when FPV drones were used against armored vehicles.
This is the know-how of our war after all. No one other than people who passed through our theater of war could do such a thing. Since we were not there, it means that it was the Russians.
Two more interesting facts. First: a little more than a week before the start of these actions, the Russian station "Sputnik" began to officially speak in Arabic on the territory of Lebanon. This is broadcast in an absolutely propagandist style with clear Russian narratives.
Second: on September 24, a Russian spacecraft capable of conducting radio-electronic reconnaissance and intercepting satellite signals was moved to Israel's geostationary orbit.
Let me remind you that in the period from September 22 to 24, there was an official visit of the Russian military delegation to Iran. We know that there were several, shall we say, wishes from the Iranian side. One of them concerned the expansion of intelligence capabilities.
It is now clear what intelligence information the Russians began to provide to all interested parties. I emphasize that it is not Iran alone, but all interested parties.
- Israel is currently conducting an operation in the Gaza Strip and can take it under full control. Under such conditions, how will Lebanon, Iran, Egypt behave?
– (Pauses) The most difficult question. What we believe will happen is a more or less rapid entry of the Israel Defense Forces into the Gaza Strip, the restoration of order and, as they usually do, an equally rapid withdrawal.
But the Hezbollah organization, which is mostly based in Lebanon, and certain parts of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from Iran have directly stated that if the Israeli Armed Forces begin to enter the Gaza Strip, they will start their ground operations from the north and northeast. It is meant from the territory of Lebanon and the territory of Syria.
A lot of disparate units are moving across the territory of Syria closer to the border with Israel. Hezbollah is all mobilized now, everyone is also pulling up to the border.
A few days ago there was a visit of senior representatives of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is quite clear that their units will also participate in this.
- How will all these events be reflected in the Russian-Ukrainian war, primarily in terms of military aid to us?
- My subjective opinion: if the conflict will be limited in time, up to a few weeks, then in principle there is nothing to worry about.
But if the situation drags on, it is quite clear that there will be certain problems with the fact that it will be necessary to supply weapons and ammunition not only to Ukraine.
- It is obvious that in recent days you had communication with Israeli special services. Will we somehow help them?
- First of all, we have to take care of our citizens.
A significant number of Ukrainians are in Israel and several hundred people in the Gaza Strip - this is a big problem.
The other day, a group of children from the territory controlled by Israel was taken to Ukraine.
What to do with the Gaza Strip is a question we are all trying to solve together now. It is a priority, as, by the way, is the previous issue you voiced, regarding armaments, for our president.
He is making every effort to, firstly, save all our people, and secondly, so that security assistance to Ukraine does not decrease in any way.
- Are we standing on the threshold of the Third World War?
- Rhetorical question (thinking). The answer to it will not be so simple.
This is my subjective assessment: based on the totality of geography, we see several conflicts that at first glance seem to be regional, except for Ukraine, but they are all connected by the same countries that are involved in these processes.
So yes, I believe we are approaching global war pretty quickly after all.
"The battle for electricity awaits us again"
- We will meet in October 2023. Last year, during the same period, the Russian Federation carried out massive shelling of our energy infrastructure. What should Ukrainians prepare for in the coming months?
- You mentioned the tragic part of our history, which was connected with the Russians' attempt to blackout us.
Then, thank God, he did not succeed. But there are no special adjustments in their plans, so they will continue to do it this season. Unfortunately, we are once again in the battle for electricity.
- What are their real abilities to attack us? What will they beat?
- They have enough forces and means, because recently they have carried out limited missile strikes.
The enemy recovered a certain supply. This reserve is not very significant, but it is sufficient to create very real problems not only for our energy sector, but also for the oil and gas sector, industrial enterprises, and military facilities.
- What means for the defense forces do we need now, apart from air defense systems?
- Air defense is the most important problem. Because everything they hit with, one way or another flies. So we need a lot more air defense than we have now.
- Can we expect military aid from our partners next year to remain at approximately the same level as now?
- I will answer your question a little indirectly.
Until the middle of next year, we do not see any particular problems with military aid. And then everything will depend on us - how we can correctly communicate, show and explain our needs to everyone, as well as establish an increase in our production.
- The question is somewhat provocative: should we expect blackouts in Moscow this winter?
- (He pauses and smiles) Temporary, perhaps.
This is a completely logical phenomenon, when you take some bad steps, sooner or later it will come back to you.
"The Russians tried to create an artificial disaster at the ZNPP. Now the situation is much better"
- In a previous interview with "Ukrainian Pravda" you stated that we had every chance to end the war already this year. What went wrong?
- There are objective and subjective reasons - all in a complex. But, sorry, most of the explanations for this are state secrets and are simply not for public discussion. Over time, it will all become clear.
- Then how long are we behind schedule?
- We got out of it. We are not lagging behind, but we have made it out. This is a completely different interpretation.
- That is, everything went to pieces at all?
- Not everything went smoothly. Let's go without clarifying and clarifying all this - we got out of the schedule - let everyone draw their own conclusion.
- Questions for you as a member of the Stavka. What should we expect in the near future in the south and east?
- Our offensive operation continues in the south. How is it there and what is happening - please ask the General Staff.
Further, we have powerful events on the return of Bakhmut. The fact that fierce battles are going on there is certainly not a secret for anyone. But, as you can see, slowly, step by step, it goes there.
- About Bakhmut, in fact, President Zelenskyi said in Washington that we are de-occupying Bakhmut. Will we be able to liberate the city by the end of the year?
- I really hope for that.
- In the context of the south, the situation at the ZNPP is interesting. In the summer, everyone was talking about the threat of a terrorist attack at the station. What is the current situation there?
- It is still threatening, as we all have to remember that the station remains occupied. And in principle, nothing globally has changed there.
The only thing is that the moment of crisis, thank God, we passed. I will not reveal to you the data, how and what was done for this. But we passed it at that time.
However, this does not remove the question that if Russia wants to do something similar again, it will have every opportunity to do so.
Can we prevent this from happening again? I hope we can.
- To get through this crisis moment at the ZNPP, did you personally connect?
- Nothing in the world happens by itself - that's all I can say.
- What did they actually plan to do at the ZNPP?
- They wanted to artificially create a man-made disaster. It's not about detonating a nuclear plant in the sense that everyone understands that there was a bang - and radiation flew in all directions. They wanted to do something much more interesting there: artificial overload of the system and controlled emission of radiation. That is, localized by place.
All such games always end very badly. According to our understanding, this would definitely lead to a real nuclear disaster.
"Kadyrov has kidney problems, but I don't know if Prigozhin really died"
- How did the death of the owner of the "Wagner" PVK Prigozhin affect the deployment of forces in the Russian army?
- Regarding the death of Prigozhin, let's say this: all I can tell you is that until now, we do not have a single fact confirming his death.
I don't know if he died or not.
And what was the impact of what was shown? Well, it is quite understandable that there has been a certain weakening within the PMC. It's good for us, what's there to hide. "Wagner" was a very serious adversary when it acted as a PMK.
But you should remember that when they started to leave Bakhmut, I said that we will not see them again as PMC "Wagner" in Ukraine. After all, you can see it now.
- Are they concluding contracts with Rosgvadiya now?
- This is a small percentage - the first thing to say. And the second: they conclude (contracts - UE) as separate natural persons, each separately.
- What does Prigozhin's death change in the context of our war?
- This gives a huge chance and hope that the "Wagner" PVC as a single body will not fight here. This was actually a huge problem for Ukraine. No matter what anyone said, they knew how to fight.
- On the eve of Prigozhin's rebellion, did he have any communication with the GUR? Was Ukrainian intelligence somehow involved in the mutiny?
- I am not sure that I will be able to provide you with answers to such questions. Sorry. Let's leave this question open.
- Then the question about Kadyrov. There was a lot of news about his illness, the Secretary of the NSDC Danilov even stated that he could have been poisoned. But at the same time, Kadyrov posted videos and photos, appeared in the media. Can you explain what is happening?
- He has health problems, that's true. That episode you just mentioned, he was really sick, but he recovered.
This too must be admitted whether we like it or not.
- What does sick mean? Did you get sick with Covid or something?
- He has kidney problems. There was a threat to his life, but he passed it.
- General Serhiy Surovikin. How is life for him after Prigozhin?
- He was removed from the position of commander of the Air and Space Forces, given a nominal position.
He lives normally. Of course, it no longer has the same influence as it used to have. But, in the end, again, it is good for Ukraine.
He was quite tough in making decisions and was not afraid to take responsibility. And this is a problem for us.
Now he lives quietly, is engaged in analytical work.
- Was he seriously integrated into the rebellion?
- It cannot be said that he was integrated into the rebellion. It's just that he had a very close relationship with Prigozhin.
He did everything so that, in the eyes of the Russians, he did not issue criminal orders to strike at his own.
And PVK "Wagner" is Russia. His role was there.
"There is a person in Russia who always brings us problems - this is General Beseda"
- Who in the Kremlin is responsible for Ukraine, who is the most informed?
- Kiriyenko has real influence on economic issues.
And if in general, any decision in the Russian Federation can be influenced by Mr. Vaino (chairman of the AP of the Russian Federation - UP).
Few people in our country know this surname. But in fact, his influence is enormous.
There is also a military bloc, where Shoigu maintains his influence.
- After the story with Prigozhin, did his influence increase?
- He exhaled, let's say so (laughs).
- Among the Russian generals, who is the most dangerous opponent for us now?
- Not ready to answer. But there is a person who always brought problems to Ukraine. This is General Beseda (head of the 5th service of the FSB - UP). A very problematic person. He did a lot of harm to Ukraine. Well, nothing, time will sort everything out.
- Russian media reported that after the start of the full-scale war, Beseda was arrested and sent to a pre-trial detention center. What happened to him?
- Beseda was suspended from his duties for a certain period of time. But then everything got better. Now he is engaged in his work, unfortunately, not at all for the benefit of Ukraine.
- What exactly does he do?
- Active operations on the territory of Ukraine.
- Then explain how the work of the GRU of the Russian Federation in Ukraine differs from the work of the FSB here?
- Radically different approaches, different people, different forms, methods of work. The GRU is more of a military intelligence. The FSB is more civilian work. Generally speaking, politicians, businessmen, and so on.
The GRU should concentrate its efforts more on working with the military.
- Is the FSB now trying to recruit Ukrainian officials?
- This question is not for me, but for the SBU, sorry.
- Then how do you assess the work of Russian intelligence during a full-scale war?
- Agency intelligence has failed, and electronic and cyber intelligence is at a very high level. As high as possible, I would say.
- Were there major special operations of Russian intelligence during a full-scale war, or are they only able to poison their own opposition abroad?
- I don't remember any serious ones. The only thing that can be recognized is the operations of their special intelligence.
Unfortunately, their subversive groups work quite well in our border areas in the north of the country.
They enter through Russia - Bryansk, Kursk regions. They enter there, conduct ambushes very often, sometimes even make raids and go back.
"The world was not ready for a war of such intensity"
- According to your estimates, how long can the war last?
- Regarding resources, let's talk about the facts.
According to the economic assessment, Russia can afford it until 2025 without any particular problems. By the amount of equipment - until 2026, the maximum. Maybe a little faster, because the rate of technology recovery that they have now is not that high.
That is, we are leaving with you somewhere in 2025. In terms of human resources, it is obvious that they will last for a long time.
But no matter what anyone says, if you evaluate our human resources as a whole, it will be there for a long time, too. Our country is not so small.
Another matter is whether the Russian Federation is ready to go to the upper limit, to the last one?
In fact, they are all fighting mobilized, they feel a lack of ammunition, a lack of weapons.
- But they cover this lack through cooperation with Iran and North Korea?
- And we cover this lack through cooperation with the United States, Britain, the civilized world. And what? However, you must understand that the total cost of arming ammunition is much greater than what can be produced. As for us with our allies, so for them with their allies.
The world was not ready for a war of such intensity. And this, by the way, is one of the conclusions that all countries will definitely draw after that.
Everyone will try to build up their arsenals.
- When will it be time for negotiations in the war?
- What do you mean? Just talk at some point? Freezing the conflict?
This cannot be allowed. First, it will be a betrayal of the people who will remain in the occupied territories. Secondly, it is wrong from the point of view of the memory of those who died and those who are currently fighting.
The opportunity for diplomacy will come when the war is over.
No war in the world has ended without the signing of a bilateral, multilateral treaty to end the war or something similar. There are many formats, but the war always ends - it is necessary to somehow get along with everyone.
But in our case, this is possible only when the occupiers leave or at least begin to leave Ukraine along the borders of 91.
And the Russians want - let's leave everything as it is now and start a conversation.
No, I'm telling you, it will just be a betrayal of our people.
It should also be remembered that several million people are currently living under occupation, and they are waiting for their release. This, by the way, is one of the main functions of the state.
- On the part of the Russian Federation, there is a real probing of the points precisely on the basis of the negotiations?
- Most likely, you are right.
- Is this happening along the line of intelligence?
- No, there are attempts to probe the international position and the position within Ukraine in completely different ways.
- Come on, your personal opinion: is it realistic, when will the time for negotiations come?
- Either when we return our territories by military means, or when events develop in such a way that there will be a clear certainty that Russia really begins to withdraw its troops from the borders of 1991.
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