Economist, teacher of the Department of Economics and Management of the Odessa National University of Economics, Eduard Karazhiya, spoke about the state of the country's economy, the government's work to support business and the general situation during six months of the war in the studio of the First City TV channel.
The state of the Ukrainian economy today
As for the country's budget, the most important thing for the state now is the fulfillment of its social obligations to citizens - pensions and salaries. For business, the main thing is always the size of income and profit, today it is difficult to talk about profits, because for entrepreneurs, simple survival is the main thing at the moment.
And due to the fact that the main engine of the economy is entrepreneurship itself, which covers 80% of employment in the country and directly depends on the incomes of the population, it is obvious that today the situation is extremely difficult for everyone - incomes are minimal, there are no jobs, and people's purchasing power is very low.
Regarding the increase in prices for most goods, one of the main reasons is risks, disruptions in logistics and problems with import and export.
Ukrainian agricultural producers are in a particularly difficult situation, because precisely because of logistics problems, they receive the same price for their products as before the war. They do not have the ability to independently sell their goods, so they are forced to accept the price of intermediaries, who sometimes earn the same amount on resale. For example, on the grain market, grain traders who export everything receive even more money than farmers who grew this grain and took a lot of risk this year.
Today, prices are rising not because incomes are rising, and not because purchasing power has increased, but because people are forced to pay more.
The work of the government to support the economy
In my opinion, today the government is doing everything to collapse the economy of Ukraine. Because practically all of their actions are not aimed at simplifying the work of business and its support, but at complicating it in all directions.
For example, the increase in the rate of the National Bank, loans given to small businesses for startups, 90% of which do not survive. In my opinion, this is completely inappropriate today. First of all, it is necessary to help entrepreneurs who are already working, in which production is established, especially since the risks for the state in this case are minimal.
A strange situation with utilities and gas and electricity prices, when the government keeps the price of energy resources low, thereby subsidizing 100% of consumers. It is necessary to give subsidies only to those who need it, and to give wealthier people and enterprises the opportunity to pay the full price.
In general, today Ukraine survives only thanks to the external assistance of international organizations and partner countries, and we would very much like our government not to lose this trust.
State aid of UAH 6500
First of all, the government has reduced all allowances for employees of the budget sector, especially in the education sector, and today the professor receives practically the same amount as an ordinary teacher. Wages decreased by 40-60%. Therefore, it is not entirely correct to talk about state support.
Regarding assistance to entrepreneurs in the amount of UAH 6500, I have great doubts that these funds were received by those who needed them.
In general, there are several issues regarding the government's financial work. The program "5-7-9% available loans" continues to work today, and the discount rate has increased from 16% to 25%, and the state budget continues to cover this large difference between 25% and 5-9% of loans issued today , and which not even all entrepreneurs can get.
It is also worth paying attention to the work of the tax system. We have, in my opinion, a fairly efficient and reasonable tax code today, but again, the government simply cannot collect these taxes properly. Collect and analyze the work of the tax system to understand where and what needs to be changed. Instead, the government wants to introduce a completely new 10-10-10 tax law scenario, which is certainly not possible in wartime. Because any reform in the procedure requires time and adjustment, and the situation in our country today is not that at all.
Pension fund and communities
Today, the deficit of the pension fund is about UAH 200 billion. The main source of income is the social security contribution (single social contribution), and it has been reduced by more than two times today. So what will cover the difference?
Income tax, which is the main source of income for local budgets, was also reduced from 18 to 10%, what will communities live on?
VAT is also a question, because in today's situation, only those who do not produce anything will win.
Therefore, in general, the situation is very difficult, but we are still holding on.
