The war in Ukraine continues. What will 2023 be like for our country. Edition Air force asked military analysts how they think things will develop in the coming year. "Can it end next year and how - on the battlefield or at the negotiating table? Or could it continue until 2024?”
"Russia's spring offensive will be key"
Michael Clarke, Deputy Director, Institute for Strategic Studies, UK
Those who seek to invade another country anywhere are ultimately doomed to winter there.
Napoleon, Hitler and Stalin had to keep their armies moving in the winter, and now Putin is digging in for the winter to await another Russian offensive in the spring.
Both sides need a break, but the Ukrainians are better equipped and motivated to continue, and we can expect them to keep up the pressure, at least in Donbas.
Around Kreminnaya and Svatovo, they are very close to a major breakthrough that will push Russian forces back 40 km to the next natural line of defense, where their February 2022 invasion actually began.
Moving to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River to put pressure on Russia's vulnerable road and rail links with Crimea may be too difficult. But one can never rule out the possibility that Kyiv will launch an unexpected new offensive.
For 2023, the key factor will be the possible spring offensive of Russia. Putin admitted that about 50 mobilized are already at the front; the other 000 newly mobilized are training until next year.
Putin has made it clear that he will not stop. And Ukraine made it clear that it is still fighting for its life.
"Ukraine is reclaiming its land"
Andriy Piontkovsky, scientist and analyst from Washington
Ukraine will win by fully restoring its territorial integrity no later than the spring of 2023. Two factors shape this conclusion.
One is the motivation, determination and courage of the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian people as a whole, unprecedented in the modern history of war.
Another is the fact that after years of appeasing the Russian dictator, the West has finally matured to realize the scale of the historic challenge it faces. This is best illustrated by a recent statement by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
"The price we pay is money. And the price paid by Ukrainians is blood. If authoritarian regimes see that force is rewarded, we will all pay a much higher price. And the world will become more dangerous for all of us."
The exact time of Ukraine's inevitable victory will be determined by the speed with which NATO can deliver a new package of military assault weapons (tanks, planes, long-range missiles), which will change the rules of the game.
I expect Melitopol to become a key point of hostilities in the coming months. Having captured Melitopol, the Ukrainians will easily move to the Sea of Azov, effectively blocking the supply and communication routes with Crimea.
The Russian capitulation will be formally agreed at technical talks after Ukraine's devastating advance on the battlefield.
The winning states - Ukraine, Great Britain, and the United States - will form a new architecture of international security.
"There is no end in sight"
Barbara Zanchetta, Department of War Studies, King's College London
Vladimir Putin expected Ukraine to passively accept the actions of its more powerful neighbor without significant involvement of other countries. This serious miscalculation led to a protracted conflict that seemed to have no end in sight.
The winter will be tough as Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will try to break the morale and resilience of an already broken population. But Ukrainian resilience turned out to be extraordinary. They will stand firm. The war will drag on.
The prospects for negotiations are bleak. A potential peace deal would require a change in the basic demands of at least one side. Currently, there are no prerequisites that this may happen in the near future.
The cost of war, both material and human, may break the level of commitment of the Russian political elite. The key will be inside Russia.
Past wars in which miscalculation was a decisive element, such as in Vietnam for the United States or in Afghanistan for the Soviet Union, ended only this way. The internal political processes in the failed country have changed, making the end of the conflict the only viable way out of the situation.
However, this can only happen if the West firmly supports Ukraine, despite increasing domestic pressures related to the cost of the war.
Unfortunately, it will be a protracted political, economic and military battle of determination. And until the end of 2023, it will most likely continue.
"There is no other result than the defeat of Russia"
Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe
It is still too early to plan a Victory parade in Kyiv, but the momentum is now on Ukraine's side, and I have no doubt that they will win this war, probably in 2023.
Things will be slower in the winter, but there is no doubt that the Ukrainian forces will be able to cope better than the Russian ones, since all the winter equipment comes from the UK, Canada and Germany.
We know from history that war is a test of will and logistics. When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, as well as the rapid improvement of the material and technical situation for Ukraine, I see no other result than the defeat of Russia.
I believe that at the end of 2023, Crimea will be fully under the control and sovereignty of Ukraine, although there may be some kind of agreement that will allow Russia to gradually wind down some of its naval presence in Sevastopol.
"Expect More"
David Handelman, a military expert from Israel
About half of Russia's 300 mobilized troops are already in the war zone. The rest, together with the forces that were freed after the withdrawal from Kherson, gives the Russians the opportunity to start an offensive.
The occupation of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts will continue, but a major Russian breakthrough, such as an advance from the south on Pavlograd to encircle Ukrainian forces in Donbas, is less likely.
It is more likely that the current tactics will be continued - slow grinding of Ukrainian forces in narrow directions and slow advance, as in the area of Bakhmut and Avdiyivka, with possible the same tactics in the Svatove-Kreminna area.
Continued attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and on Ukraine's rear could end this war of attrition strategy.
Significant Ukrainian forces were also released after the retreat of the Russians from Kherson. For them, the most strategically valuable is the southern direction, to Melitopol or Berdyansk, with the aim of cutting off the Russian mainland corridor to Crimea. This would be a great Ukrainian victory, and that is why the Russians are fortifying Melitopol.
Another option for Ukraine is Svatov – success there would endanger the entire northern flank of the entire Russian front line.
The big question is how many Ukrainian forces are free and ready to attack at the moment, and what schedule is on the table of General Zaluzhny, how many new reserve brigades and corps will be ready in one, two or three months, including armored vehicles and heavy weapons .
