"Where is the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces? — a question that I now hear from everywhere, from wherever possible and, sometimes, from very specific places. And in this, on the one hand, there is nothing surprising, because, I do not hide, even I predicted the beginning of the next active phase at the end of 2022," he writes in his blog Oleksandr Kovalenko, military and political columnist of the "Information Resistance" group.
Expert points out that on the other hand, if the active phase hasn't started, then there must be some objective reasons for that, right? After all, the combat zone is a gigantic area with an operational situation that is constantly changing, which is influenced by many factors, many of which no one even suspects.
But now I want to draw attention to a completely different factor, which is constantly changing according to the level of development of events in the combat zone.
I think many have heard the version that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are waiting for the formation of units made of completely Western models of equipment and will go on a counteroffensive with them.
Perhaps this version has the right to life, but the formation of such units can take up to two months, and maybe even three. It's hard to say exactly. But what can be said with certainty is that the intensity of the use of artillery by the Russians continues to decrease.
Thus, by the end of January 2023, the average rate of shelling per day in the artillery of the Russian Federation is 15. Yes, daily spikes up to 20-25 thousand are periodically recorded, but then there is a sharp drop, sometimes up to 10 thousand/day. And this despite the fact that from November to December, 20 shots per day were the norm for them.
Let me remind you that in March-April 2022 in Russia, the standard daily intensity of artillery work was 70-80 thousand/day. That is, reducing the possibilities of fire impact, as they say, is available.
The enemy can concentrate intense artillery fire on limited areas and in limited time intervals. For example, in the area of Bakhmut or Avdiivka. In the Vugledara area, due to the lack of artillery and BC in a proportional amount, the Russian offensive failed again.
That is, we can say that the enemy's artillery potential has decreased by a quarter over the past 2 months. That is, in the next 2 months, he has every chance to reduce to 10 thousand shots per day? It is possible, and it is very important.
The fact is that now, for example, in the Zaporozhye direction, the Russians are forced to maintain a front of 100 km. They do not have the necessary amount of artillery to completely close such a front, as well as a proportional number of BC for active defense.
They cannot cover all areas with artillery, and those that are in a limited radius of action do not have the ability to conduct long-term fire in the format of a "valley of fire" or at least its similarity, for defensive actions, not to mention an attack.
Thus, the lower the potential of Russian artillery, the more successful the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces and the less loss, both in terms of personnel and equipment.
In fact, assault BTGr on Western equipment, breaking through the defense lines of the enemy, who cannot effectively lead the defense... Well, that's it.
The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces continues every day, every hour. And its essence is to exhaust the enemy, which is happening right now. But when the active phase will begin, only the General Staff of the Armed Forces knows, you and I can only speculate and build theories.
